揭示稀疏线性微分方程模型的不可辨识性问题,挑战数据驱动建模的信任基础。
Identifiability Challenges in Sparse Linear Ordinary Differential Equations
- 分析稀疏线性常微分方程在单轨迹数据下的可辨识性机制
- 证明在实际稀疏度下系统存在正概率不可辨识,给出下界
- 实验验证主流方法仍无法克服此理论限制,适用于生物/物理建模者
动力系统建模是自然与生命科学的核心。随着模型从数据中学习,可辨识性成为关键概念。若系统不可辨识,则其在新条件或输入下的行为及控制机制均无保障。已知稠密线性常微分方程(ODE)几乎必然可从单条轨迹辨识,但该结论不适用于稀疏情形。尽管稀疏在生物、社会与物理系统中普遍存在,其可辨识性仍研究不足。本文首次刻画稀疏线性ODE的可辨识性:与稠密情况相反,在实际稀疏度下系统以正概率不可辨识,并提供该概率的下界。我们进一步实证检验了当前主流方法在估计稀疏线性ODE时的表现,结果表明理论上的不可辨识性在实践中同样存在。诱导偏置或优化动态无法消除这些理论限制。研究呼吁重新审视数据驱动建模的可信度,并支持对学习到的线性ODE进行量化信任评估。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Dynamical systems modeling is a core pillar of scientific inquiry across natural and life sciences. Increasingly, dynamical system models are learned from data, rendering identifiability a paramount concept. For systems that are not identifiable from data, no guarantees can be given about their behavior under new conditions and inputs, or about possible control mechanisms to steer the system. It is known in the community that "linear ordinary differential equations (ODE) are almost surely identifiable from a single trajectory." However, this only holds for dense matrices. The sparse regime remains underexplored, despite its practical relevance with sparsity arising naturally in many biological, social, and physical systems. In this work, we address this gap by characterizing the identifiability of sparse linear ODEs. Contrary to the dense case, we show that sparse systems are unidentifiable with a positive probability in practically relevant sparsity regimes and provide lower bounds for this probability. We further study empirically how this theoretical unidentifiability manifests in state-of-the-art methods to estimate linear ODEs from data. Our results corroborate that sparse systems are also practically unidentifiable. Theoretical limitations are not resolved through inductive biases or optimization dynamics. Our findings call for rethinking what can be expected from data-driven dynamical system modeling and allows for quantitative assessments of how much to trust a learned linear ODE.
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