arXiv:2506.10140cs.LGstat.ML2025-06被引 3

用可学习核函数解决生存分析中的删失数据问题,无需参数假设。

Survival Analysis as Imprecise Classification with Trainable Kernels

  • 用区间概率表示删失数据,结合注意力机制建模时间分布。
  • iSurvJ模型在真实与合成数据上均优于传统贝兰估计器。
  • 适合处理高删失率的医疗、金融等时间事件数据场景。

生存分析是建模医疗、工程和金融中时间至事件数据的基础工具,其中删失观测带来显著挑战。传统非参数方法如贝兰估计器在复杂数据结构和重度删失情况下表现不佳。本文提出三种新型生存模型:基于似然均值的iSurvM、基于似然分位数的iSurvQ以及基于联合学习的iSurvJ,将模糊概率理论与注意力机制结合,无需参数假设即可处理删失数据。核心思路为:对每个样本在事件间隔内用区间值概率分布表示删失;采用可学习核的Nadaraya-Watson回归计算全数据集的时间区间概率分布;设计三种训练决策策略对应三个模型。在合成与真实数据集上的实验表明,所提模型(尤其iSurvJ)在准确率和计算复杂度方面均显著优于贝兰估计器。代码已公开。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Survival analysis is a fundamental tool for modeling time-to-event data in healthcare, engineering, and finance, where censored observations pose significant challenges. While traditional methods like the Beran estimator offer nonparametric solutions, they often struggle with the complex data structures and heavy censoring. This paper introduces three novel survival models, iSurvM (the imprecise Survival model based on Mean likelihood functions), iSurvQ (the imprecise Survival model based on the Quantiles of likelihood functions), and iSurvJ (the imprecise Survival model based on the Joint learning), that combine imprecise probability theory with attention mechanisms to handle censored data without parametric assumptions. The first idea behind the models is to represent censored observations by interval-valued probability distributions for each instance over time intervals between events moments. The second idea is to employ the kernel-based Nadaraya-Watson regression with trainable attention weights for computing the imprecise probability distribution over time intervals for the entire dataset. The third idea is to consider three decision strategies for training, which correspond to the proposed three models. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that the proposed models, especially iSurvJ, consistently outperform the Beran estimator from the accuracy and computational complexity points of view. Codes implementing the proposed models are publicly available.

生存分析删失数据模糊概率注意力机制

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