针对微信小游戏低购买率难题,提出图模型与多任务优化结合的LTV预测新方法。
Mini-Game Lifetime Value Prediction in WeChat
- 用图神经网络挖掘用户行为关系,缓解数据稀疏问题。
- 通过帕累托优化统一处理不同周期的预测任务,提升整体准确性。
- 特别适合高相关性、小样本的广告投放场景,对精准营销有实用价值。
生命周期价值(LTV)预测旨在预估用户对特定商品的累计消费贡献,是广告商亟待解决的关键问题。精确的LTV预测能提升用户兴趣与广告设计的匹配度,为广告商带来显著收益。然而,现实广告场景中数据稀缺,注册用户购买率通常低至0.1%,多数用户仅完成少量购买,导致监督信号严重不足,难以有效训练预测模型。此外,不同时间窗口下的预测任务具有高度相关性:例如7天期预测高度依赖3天期结果,异常值会同时影响多个任务的精度。为此,本文提出图表示帕累托最优生命周期价值预测框架(GRePO-LTV)。首先采用图表示学习应对数据稀疏问题;随后利用帕累托优化处理多任务间的依赖关系,实现跨周期预测的协同优化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The LifeTime Value (LTV) prediction, which endeavors to forecast the cumulative purchase contribution of a user to a particular item, remains a vital challenge that advertisers are keen to resolve. A precise LTV prediction system enhances the alignment of user interests with meticulously designed advertisements, thereby generating substantial profits for advertisers. Nonetheless, this issue is complicated by the paucity of data typically observed in real-world advertising scenarios. The purchase rate among registered users is often as critically low as 0.1%, resulting in a dataset where the majority of users make only several purchases. Consequently, there is insufficient supervisory signal for effectively training the LTV prediction model. An additional challenge emerges from the interdependencies among tasks with high correlation. It is a common practice to estimate a user's contribution to a game over a specified temporal interval. Varying the lengths of these intervals corresponds to distinct predictive tasks, which are highly correlated. For instance, predictions over a 7-day period are heavily reliant on forecasts made over a 3-day period, where exceptional cases can adversely affect the accuracy of both tasks. In order to comprehensively address the aforementioned challenges, we introduce an innovative framework denoted as Graph-Represented Pareto-Optimal LifeTime Value prediction (GRePO-LTV). Graph representation learning is initially employed to address the issue of data scarcity. Subsequently, Pareto-Optimization is utilized to manage the interdependence of prediction tasks.
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