用大模型分析时间序列,突破传统方法的局限。
Large Language models for Time Series Analysis: Techniques, Applications, and Challenges
- 将大模型注意力机制用于时间序列建模,提升长期依赖捕捉能力
- 系统梳理了从预训练到轻量化部署的技术流程与关键挑战
- 适合想了解大模型在金融、医疗等领域应用前景的研究者
时间序列分析在金融预测和生物医学监测等场景中至关重要,但传统方法受限于非线性特征表达能力和长期依赖建模。大语言模型(LLM)凭借跨模态知识融合与内在注意力机制,为时间序列分析带来变革性潜力。然而,从零开始构建通用时间序列大模型仍面临数据多样性、标注稀缺和计算开销等问题。本文系统综述了基于预训练大模型的时间序列分析技术,梳理了人工智能驱动时间序列分析的发展脉络:从早期机器学习时代,经由新兴的LLM驱动范式,迈向原生时序基础模型的构建。从工作流视角,组织并系统化了LLM驱动时间序列分析的技术体系,涵盖输入表示、优化策略与轻量化部署阶段。最后,批判性分析了新颖的实际应用场景,并指出关键开放挑战,以指引未来研究与创新。该工作不仅提供了当前进展的深入洞见,也勾勒出未来发展的可行方向,为学术界与工业界研究者提供基础参考,助力构建更高效、通用且可解释的时序大模型系统。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series analysis is pivotal in domains like financial forecasting and biomedical monitoring, yet traditional methods are constrained by limited nonlinear feature representation and long-term dependency capture. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers transformative potential by leveraging their cross-modal knowledge integration and inherent attention mechanisms for time series analysis. However, the development of general-purpose LLMs for time series from scratch is still hindered by data diversity, annotation scarcity, and computational requirements. This paper presents a systematic review of pre-trained LLM-driven time series analysis, focusing on enabling techniques, potential applications, and open challenges. First, it establishes an evolutionary roadmap of AI-driven time series analysis, from the early machine learning era, through the emerging LLM-driven paradigm, to the development of native temporal foundation models. Second, it organizes and systematizes the technical landscape of LLM-driven time series analysis from a workflow perspective, covering LLMs' input, optimization, and lightweight stages. Finally, it critically examines novel real-world applications and highlights key open challenges that can guide future research and innovation. The work not only provides valuable insights into current advances but also outlines promising directions for future development. It serves as a foundational reference for both academic and industrial researchers, paving the way for the development of more efficient, generalizable, and interpretable systems of LLM-driven time series analysis.
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