用大模型生成可解释的房价估算,提升房产评估透明度
On the Performance of LLMs for Real Estate Appraisal
- 通过优化上下文学习,让大模型基于房屋特征和地理位置生成价格预测
- 在多国数据集上表现优于零样本,与主流机器学习模型精度接近
- 适合关注可解释性与交互性的房产评估从业者和普通用户
房地产市场对全球经济至关重要,但存在显著的信息不对称。本研究探讨大型语言模型(LLMs)如何通过优化的上下文学习(ICL)策略,生成具有竞争力且可解释的房屋估价,从而促进房产洞察的民主化。我们在多样化的国际住房数据集上系统评估了主流LLMs,比较了零样本、少样本、市场报告增强及混合提示等方法。结果表明,LLMs能有效利用如房屋面积、配套设施等享乐变量生成有意义的估价。尽管传统机器学习模型在纯预测精度上仍占优,但LLMs提供了更易访问、可交互且可解释的替代方案。虽然自解释内容需谨慎解读,但其解释与先进模型一致,证实了可信性。基于特征相似性和地理邻近性的精心选择的上下文示例显著提升了性能,但LLMs在价格区间上存在过度自信且空间推理能力有限。我们为结构化预测任务提供了提示优化的实用建议。研究结果凸显了LLMs在提升房产评估透明度方面的潜力,并为利益相关方提供可操作的洞见。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The real estate market is vital to global economies but suffers from significant information asymmetry. This study examines how Large Language Models (LLMs) can democratize access to real estate insights by generating competitive and interpretable house price estimates through optimized In-Context Learning (ICL) strategies. We systematically evaluate leading LLMs on diverse international housing datasets, comparing zero-shot, few-shot, market report-enhanced, and hybrid prompting techniques. Our results show that LLMs effectively leverage hedonic variables, such as property size and amenities, to produce meaningful estimates. While traditional machine learning models remain strong for pure predictive accuracy, LLMs offer a more accessible, interactive and interpretable alternative. Although self-explanations require cautious interpretation, we find that LLMs explain their predictions in agreement with state-of-the-art models, confirming their trustworthiness. Carefully selected in-context examples based on feature similarity and geographic proximity, significantly enhance LLM performance, yet LLMs struggle with overconfidence in price intervals and limited spatial reasoning. We offer practical guidance for structured prediction tasks through prompt optimization. Our findings highlight LLMs' potential to improve transparency in real estate appraisal and provide actionable insights for stakeholders.
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