arXiv:2506.11945cs.CYcs.AI2025-06被引 11

调研发现:学者与公众都认为AI可能有主观体验,但对何时出现和如何对待分歧明显。

Subjective Experience in AI Systems: What Do AI Researchers and the Public Believe?

  • 调查582名研究者与838名公众,评估对AI主观体验的看法
  • 2034年前,研究者与公众预计概率分别为25%和30%,2100年达70%与60%
  • 多数人主张现在就设防,但对保护力度远低于动物与环境

我们对582名在顶级人工智能会议发表过论文的研究者以及838名具有全国代表性的美国公众进行了调查,了解他们对人工智能系统可能具备主观体验的看法,以及此类系统应如何被对待和治理。当被要求估算特定日期实现的可能性时,研究者的中位估计为:2024年1%,2034年25%,2100年70%;公众则分别为5%、30%、60%。公众中认为此类系统永远不会出现的比例(25%)高于研究者(10%)。两组均认为需跨学科专业知识来评估主观体验。尽管对这类AI提供福利保护的支持超过反对,但远低于对动物或环境的保护支持。在道德与治理问题上,两组意见分歧显著,尤其是在是否应创造此类系统及赋予何种权利或保护方面。然而,两组多数人同意,应由开发者现在就建立防范潜在风险的保障措施;若存在,这些系统应表现良好、行为合乎伦理并承担责任。总体而言,研究者与公众均认为本世纪可能出现具备主观体验的AI系统,但对其时间表和应对方式仍存在大量不确定性和争议。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We surveyed 582 AI researchers who have published in leading AI venues and 838 nationally representative US participants about their views on the potential development of AI systems with subjective experience and how such systems should be treated and governed. When asked to estimate the chances that such systems will exist on specific dates, the median responses were 1% (AI researchers) and 5% (public) by 2024, 25% and 30% by 2034, and 70% and 60% by 2100, respectively. The median member of the public thought there was a higher chance that AI systems with subjective experience would never exist (25%) than the median AI researcher did (10%). Both groups perceived a need for multidisciplinary expertise to assess AI subjective experience. Although support for welfare protections for such AI systems exceeded opposition, it remained far lower than support for protections for animals or the environment. Attitudes toward moral and governance issues were divided in both groups, especially regarding whether such systems should be created and what rights or protections they should receive. Yet a majority of respondents in both groups agreed that safeguards against the potential risks from AI systems with subjective experience should be implemented by AI developers now, and if created, AI systems with subjective experience should treat others well, behave ethically, and be held accountable. Overall, these results suggest that both AI researchers and the public regard the emergence of AI systems with subjective experience as a possibility this century, though substantial uncertainty and disagreement remain about the timeline and appropriate response.

AI伦理主观体验公众认知治理

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