arXiv:2506.12029cs.LGcs.AI2025-06被引 17

用物理约束提升船舶轨迹预测精度,避免不合理转弯或变速。

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Vessel Trajectory Prediction: Learning Time-Discretized Kinematic Dynamics via Finite Differences

  • 引入有限差分物理损失函数,强制模型遵守运动规律。
  • 在真实AIS数据上,平均位移误差降低32%。
  • 适合需要高可靠性的海上导航与自动航行系统。

准确的船舶轨迹预测对航行安全、航线优化、交通管理、搜救行动和自主导航至关重要。传统数据驱动模型缺乏真实物理约束,导致预测结果违背船舶运动规律,尤其在数据稀疏或噪声较大时,易出现突发转向或速度变化。为此,我们提出一种物理信息神经网络(PINN)方法,通过一阶和二阶有限差分构建基于物理的损失函数,将船舶运动的简化动力学模型融入神经网络训练。该损失函数采用前向欧拉法、海恩二阶近似及基于泰勒展开的中点修正,有效惩罚偏离预期运动行为的预测。我们在涵盖多种海上条件的真实AIS数据集上评估了该方法,并与现有先进模型对比。结果表明,所提方法在不同模型与数据集上平均位移误差降低最高达32%,同时保持物理一致性。该成果提升了模型可靠性,有助于增强海洋环境中关键任务的态势感知能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is crucial for navigational safety, route optimization, traffic management, search and rescue operations, and autonomous navigation. Traditional data-driven models lack real-world physical constraints, leading to forecasts that disobey vessel motion dynamics, such as in scenarios with limited or noisy data where sudden course changes or speed variations occur due to external factors. To address this limitation, we propose a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) approach for trajectory prediction that integrates a streamlined kinematic model for vessel motion into the neural network training process via a first- and second-order, finite difference physics-based loss function. This loss function, discretized using the first-order forward Euler method, Heun's second-order approximation, and refined with a midpoint approximation based on Taylor series expansion, enforces fidelity to fundamental physical principles by penalizing deviations from expected kinematic behavior. We evaluated PINN using real-world AIS datasets that cover diverse maritime conditions and compared it with state-of-the-art models. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method reduces average displacement errors by up to 32% across models and datasets while maintaining physical consistency. These results enhance model reliability and adherence to mission-critical maritime activities, where precision translates into better situational awareness in the oceans.

轨迹预测物理信息船舶航行神经网络

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