让机器学习具备因果推理能力,提升模型在分布外场景下的泛化性能。
Learning Causality for Modern Machine Learning
- 基于独立因果机制原则,挖掘数据中不变的因果关系
- 在图结构数据上实现分布外泛化,显著提升鲁棒性
- 适合关注模型可解释性与对抗鲁棒性的研究者
过去几十年,基于经验风险最小化(ERM)的机器学习在数据统计模式学习方面表现卓越,甚至超越人类。然而,ERM忽视了对因果关系的建模,而因果理解是人类智能的核心。当模型部署于训练环境之外时,分布偏移无处不在:例如自动驾驶系统需应对未见天气,AI药物发现需预测新病毒(如新冠)下的分子生化特性。这使传统机器学习面临分布外(OOD)泛化难题。本文研究如何将因果性融入现代机器学习,利用独立因果机制(ICM)原则——因果机制间相互独立,其条件分布对分布偏移保持不变。我们首先将该原则应用于图结构数据,广泛存在于金融网络、分子等实际场景。结果表明,引入因果性可有效提升模型在(i)OOD泛化、(ii)可解释性、(iii)对抗攻击鲁棒性方面的表现。但实现因果性也带来优化困境,与传统ERM目标存在冲突。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In the past decades, machine learning with Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) has demonstrated great capability in learning and exploiting the statistical patterns from data, or even surpassing humans. Despite the success, ERM avoids the modeling of causality the way of understanding and handling changes, which is fundamental to human intelligence. When deploying models beyond the training environment, distribution shifts are everywhere. For example, an autopilot system often needs to deal with new weather conditions that have not been seen during training, An Al-aided drug discovery system needs to predict the biochemical properties of molecules with respect to new viruses such as COVID-19. It renders the problem of Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization challenging to conventional machine learning. In this thesis, we investigate how to incorporate and realize the causality for broader tasks in modern machine learning. In particular, we exploit the invariance implied by the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM), that is, the causal mechanisms generating the effects from causes do not inform or influence each other. Therefore, the conditional distribution between the target variable given its causes is invariant under distribution shifts. With the causal invariance principle, we first instantiate it to graphs -- a general data structure ubiquitous in many real-world industry and scientific applications, such as financial networks and molecules. Then, we shall see how learning the causality benefits many of the desirable properties of modern machine learning, in terms of (i) OOD generalization capability; (ii) interpretability; and (iii) robustness to adversarial attacks. Realizing the causality in machine learning, on the other hand, raises a dilemma for optimization in conventional machine learning, as it often contradicts the objective of ERM...
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