arXiv:2506.12664cs.AIcs.SY2025-06被引 2

用大模型生成的虚拟用户模拟电力决策,发现真实行为模式。

Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations

  • 用大语言模型构建虚拟用户,模拟动态电价下的用电决策。
  • 在复杂场景中表现更随机,在停电等极端事件中优先保障用电可靠。
  • 可替代人工实验,适合研究罕见事件和多样化用户行为。

准确建模能源运营中的消费者行为面临不确定性、行为异质性和实证数据不足的挑战,尤其在低频高影响事件中更为突出。尽管基于大规模人类数据训练的生成式AI为研究决策行为提供了新机遇,其在实际运营中的作用仍不明确。本文引入一种新方法,利用由大语言模型驱动的生成式代理(generative agents)来模拟动态电价与停电风险下的连续用户决策。结果表明,这些代理在简单市场场景中表现更优且理性,但随任务复杂度上升,表现趋于波动且次优。此外,代理展现出多样化的用户偏好,持续保持由人物设定驱动的推理模式,涵盖操作决策与文本解释。与动态规划及贪心策略对比显示,特定人物类型与不同启发式决策策略存在对应关系。在黑障等低频高影响事件中,代理优先考虑能源可靠性而非成本或收益,揭示了传统数学模型难以捕捉的行为特征。管理启示:生成式代理可作为研究能源运营中消费者行为的可扩展、灵活工具,通过可控实验覆盖异质用户类型与罕见事件,提升能源管理系统设计,并支持更精准的能源政策与激励计划分析。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Problem definition: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations is challenging due to uncertainty, behavioral heterogeneity, and limited empirical data-particularly in low-frequency, high-impact events. While generative AI trained on large-scale human data offers new opportunities to study decision behavior, its role in operational applications remains unclear. We examine how generative agents can support customer behavior discovery in energy operations, complementing rather than replacing human-based experiments. Methodology/results: We introduce a novel approach leveraging generative agents-artificial agents powered by large language models-to simulate sequential customer decisions under dynamic electricity prices and outage risks. We find that these agents behave more optimally and rationally in simpler market scenarios, while their performance becomes more variable and suboptimal as task complexity rises. Furthermore, the agents exhibit heterogeneous customer preferences, consistently maintaining distinct, persona-driven reasoning patterns in both operational decisions and textual reasoning. Comparisons with dynamic programming and greedy policy benchmarks show alignment between specific personas and distinct heuristic decision policies. In low-frequency, high-impact events such as blackouts, agents prioritize energy reliability over cost or profit, demonstrating their ability to uncover behavioral patterns beyond the rigidity of traditional mathematical models. Managerial Implications: Our findings suggest that behavioral generative agents can serve as scalable and flexible tools for studying consumer behavior in energy operations. By enabling controlled experiments across heterogeneous customer types and rare events, these agents can enhance the design of energy management systems and support more informed analysis of energy policies and incentive programs.

生成式代理能源管理行为建模大模型应用

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