arXiv:2506.12800cs.LG2025-06KDD被引 8

通过挖掘系统负载的元模式,提升复杂动态系统的预测精度。

MetaEformer: Unveiling and Leveraging Meta-patterns for Complex and Dynamic Systems Load Forecasting

  • 提出元模式池化与回声机制,捕捉系统负载的深层规律。
  • 在三个场景八组基准上相对基线提升37%准确率。
  • 适合需要高精度、可解释性预测的工业系统应用。

时间序列预测在工业场景中至关重要,支撑着云、电网和交通网络等现代系统的智能运行。然而,这些系统的内在复杂性与动态变化带来巨大挑战。尽管模式识别与抗非平稳性方法有所进展,现有方法仍难以在不同场景下保持一致有效性,主要受限于复杂模式、概念漂移和少样本问题。为此,我们提出一种以基础波形(即元模式)为核心的新型方案。开发独特的元模式池化机制,净化并保留元模式,捕捉系统负载的细微特征;同时设计自适应回声机制,灵活利用元模式实现精准模式重构。所提出的元模式回声变换器(MetaEformer)将这些机制与基于Transformer的预测器无缝结合,兼具端到端效率与核心过程的可解释性。在三个系统场景下的八组基准测试中表现卓越,相比十五个先进基线方法,相对准确率提升达37%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is a critical and practical problem in many real-world applications, especially for industrial scenarios, where load forecasting underpins the intelligent operation of modern systems like clouds, power grids and traffic networks.However, the inherent complexity and dynamics of these systems present significant challenges. Despite advances in methods such as pattern recognition and anti-non-stationarity have led to performance gains, current methods fail to consistently ensure effectiveness across various system scenarios due to the intertwined issues of complex patterns, concept-drift, and few-shot problems. To address these challenges simultaneously, we introduce a novel scheme centered on fundamental waveform, a.k.a., meta-pattern. Specifically, we develop a unique Meta-pattern Pooling mechanism to purify and maintain meta-patterns, capturing the nuanced nature of system loads. Complementing this, the proposed Echo mechanism adaptively leverages the meta-patterns, enabling a flexible and precise pattern reconstruction. Our Meta-pattern Echo transformer (MetaEformer) seamlessly incorporates these mechanisms with the transformer-based predictor, offering end-to-end efficiency and interpretability of core processes. Demonstrating superior performance across eight benchmarks under three system scenarios, MetaEformer marks a significant advantage in accuracy, with a 37% relative improvement on fifteen state-of-the-art baselines.

负载预测元模式Transformer工业应用

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。