用机器学习分析风电机组数据,精准识别性能下降并估算年发电损失。
Condition Monitoring with Machine Learning: A Data-Driven Framework for Quantifying Wind Turbine Energy Loss
- 基于SCADA数据构建预处理流程,通过规则过滤与异常检测分离正常运行状态。
- 保留31%原始数据量,24台风机显示明显性能衰减,可量化年发电损失。
- 适合风电运维团队用于预测性维护,降低故障停机成本。
风能是全球能源转型的重要组成部分,但叶片前缘侵蚀等运行问题显著降低发电效率。本文提出一种可扩展的机器学习监测框架,利用监控与数据采集(SCADA)数据提升异常检测能力。通过严格的预处理,结合领域规则和高斯混合模型、预测力评分等异常检测方法,有效分离正常运行模式。数据清洗与特征选择过程识别出性能退化信号,支持年度发电量损失估算。该方法使每座风场保留平均31%的原始数据。在35台风机中,24台表现明显性能下降,7台改善,4台无显著变化。采用风速与环境温度构成的功率曲线特征集后,随机森林、XGBoost与KNN模型均成功捕捉到细微但持续的性能衰退。该框架通过分离正常数据并量化年发电损失,为运维决策提供新方法,有助于降低维护支出与停机经济损失。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Wind energy significantly contributes to the global shift towards renewable energy, yet operational challenges, such as Leading-Edge Erosion on wind turbine blades, notably reduce energy output. This study introduces an advanced, scalable machine learning framework for condition monitoring of wind turbines, specifically targeting improved detection of anomalies using Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data. The framework effectively isolates normal turbine behavior through rigorous preprocessing, incorporating domain-specific rules and anomaly detection filters, including Gaussian Mixture Models and a predictive power score. The data cleaning and feature selection process enables identification of deviations indicative of performance degradation, facilitating estimates of annual energy production losses. The data preprocessing methods resulted in significant data reduction, retaining on average 31% of the original SCADA data per wind farm. Notably, 24 out of 35 turbines exhibited clear performance declines. At the same time, seven improved, and four showed no significant changes when employing the power curve feature set, which consisted of wind speed and ambient temperature. Models such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and KNN consistently captured subtle but persistent declines in turbine performance. The developed framework provides a novel approach to existing condition monitoring methodologies by isolating normal operational data and estimating annual energy loss, which can be a key part in reducing maintenance expenditures and mitigating economic impacts from turbine downtime.
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