统一处理缺失值的多变量时间序列预测框架,提升准确性与效率
CoIFNet: A Unified Framework for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values
- 联合建模填补与预测,避免误差累积
- 在60%缺失率下比当前最优方法提升24.40%
- 适合传感器数据、经济指标等含缺失值场景
多变量时间序列预测(MTSF)在气象、交通、经济等领域具有重要意义,但传感器故障或人为错误导致的广泛缺失值会显著降低预测精度。以往方法通常采用先填补后预测的范式,因两阶段目标不一致导致误差累积,表现不佳。为此,我们提出协同填补-预测网络(CoIFNet),将填补与预测统一建模,通过跨时序融合(CTF)和跨变量融合(CVF)模块,利用观测值、掩码矩阵和时间戳嵌入,有效捕捉对缺失值鲁棒的时间依赖关系。我们从理论上证明了所提学习目标能提升带缺失值的MTSF性能上限。在多个具有挑战性的基准上实验表明,该方法在不同缺失场景下均表现出色:例如在点缺失率0.6(即60%)时,相比现有最优方法相对提升24.40%(点预测)和23.81%(块预测),同时内存与计算效率分别提高4.3倍和2.1倍。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is a critical task with broad applications in domains such as meteorology, transportation, and economics. Nevertheless, pervasive missing values caused by sensor failures or human errors significantly degrade forecasting accuracy. Prior efforts usually employ an impute-then-forecast paradigm, leading to suboptimal predictions due to error accumulation and misaligned objectives between the two stages. To address this challenge, we propose the Collaborative Imputation-Forecasting Network (CoIFNet), a novel framework that unifies imputation and forecasting to achieve robust MTSF in the presence of missing values. Specifically, CoIFNet takes the observed values, mask matrix and timestamp embeddings as input, processing them sequentially through the Cross-Timestep Fusion (CTF) and Cross-Variate Fusion (CVF) modules to capture temporal dependencies that are robust to missing values. We provide theoretical justifications on how our CoIFNet learning objective improves the performance bound of MTSF with missing values. Through extensive experiments on challenging MSTF benchmarks, we demonstrate the effectiveness and computational efficiency of our proposed approach across diverse missing-data scenarios, e.g., CoIFNet outperforms the state-of-the-art method by $\underline{\textbf{24.40}}$% ($\underline{\textbf{23.81}}$%) at a point (block) missing rate of 0.6, while improving memory and time efficiency by $\underline{\boldsymbol{4.3\times}}$ and $\underline{\boldsymbol{2.1\times}}$, respectively. Our code is available at: https://github.com/KaiTang-eng/CoIFNet.
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