arXiv:2506.13113cs.AIecon.GN2025-06被引 2

用多智能体强化学习优化再保险合约竞标,提升利润并降低风险。

Dynamic Reinsurance Treaty Bidding via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

  • 每个再保险公司作为智能体,在竞争环境中自主学习最优出价策略。
  • 相比传统方法,利润提高15%,尾部风险降低20%,夏普比率提升超25%。
  • 适合关注智能定价、金融风险控制与算法市场设计的研究者。

本文提出一种新型多智能体强化学习(MARL)框架,用于再保险合约竞标,解决传统经纪人中介流程长期存在的低效问题。研究核心问题是:基于学习的自主竞标系统能否提升风险转移效率,并超越传统定价方法?在模型中,每位再保险公司由一个自适应智能体代表,于竞争性、部分可观测环境中迭代优化出价策略。仿真显式纳入制度性摩擦,包括经纪人中介、既有优势、最后查看权及承保信息不对称。实证分析表明,MARL智能体相比精算与启发式基线,实现最高15%的承保利润提升,尾部风险(CVaR)降低20%,夏普比率改善超过25%。敏感性测试验证了超参数设置下的稳健性,压力测试显示其在模拟灾难冲击与资本约束下仍具强韧性。结果表明,MARL为更透明、自适应且风险敏感的再保险市场提供可行路径。该框架推动了算法市场设计、战略竞标与人工智能驱动金融决策交叉领域的研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper develops a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework for reinsurance treaty bidding, addressing long-standing inefficiencies in traditional broker-mediated placement processes. We pose the core research question: Can autonomous, learning-based bidding systems improve risk transfer efficiency and outperform conventional pricing approaches in reinsurance markets? In our model, each reinsurer is represented by an adaptive agent that iteratively refines its bidding strategy within a competitive, partially observable environment. The simulation explicitly incorporates institutional frictions including broker intermediation, incumbent advantages, last-look privileges, and asymmetric access to underwriting information. Empirical analysis demonstrates that MARL agents achieve up to 15% higher underwriting profit, 20% lower tail risk (CVaR), and over 25% improvement in Sharpe ratios relative to actuarial and heuristic baselines. Sensitivity tests confirm robustness across hyperparameter settings, and stress testing reveals strong resilience under simulated catastrophe shocks and capital constraints. These findings suggest that MARL offers a viable path toward more transparent, adaptive, and risk-sensitive reinsurance markets. The proposed framework contributes to emerging literature at the intersection of algorithmic market design, strategic bidding, and AI-enabled financial decision-making.

再保险多智能体强化学习风险控制

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