提出一种新型混合学习器,能自动选择最优策略估算治疗效果差异。
Hybrid Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
- 通过学习中间函数差值逼近治疗效果,灵活融合直接与间接方法。
- 在多种数据集上表现稳定,始终处于最优权衡边界。
- 适合处理复杂因果推断问题的研究者和实践者使用。
从观察数据中估计条件平均处理效应(CATE)需区别于监督学习的建模方式,尤其在模型复杂度正则化方面。现有方法分为两类元学习范式:间接元学习先分别拟合并正则化潜在结果模型,再通过差值估计CATE;直接元学习则直接构建并正则化CATE函数本身。两者各具优势:当潜在结果简单时,间接方法更优;当CATE比单个潜在结果更简单时,直接方法表现更好。本文提出混合学习器(H-learner),通过学习一组中间函数,其差值可近似CATE,无需精确拟合个体潜在结果。实验表明,故意放宽对潜在结果的拟合精度,反而改善了偏差-方差权衡。在半合成与真实世界基准数据集上的测试显示,H-learner始终位于帕累托前沿,有效结合了直接与间接元学习的优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped into two primary "meta-learner" paradigms that impose distinct inductive biases. Indirect meta-learners first fit and regularize separate potential outcome (PO) models and then estimate CATE by taking their difference, whereas direct meta-learners construct and directly regularize estimators for the CATE function itself. Neither approach consistently outperforms the other across all scenarios: indirect learners perform well when the PO functions are simple, while direct learners outperform when the CATE is simpler than individual PO functions. In this paper, we introduce the Hybrid Learner (H-learner), a novel regularization strategy that interpolates between the direct and indirect regularizations depending on the dataset at hand. The H-learner achieves this by learning intermediate functions whose difference closely approximates the CATE without necessarily requiring accurate individual approximations of the POs themselves. We demonstrate that intentionally allowing suboptimal fits to the POs improves the bias-variance tradeoff in estimating CATE. Experiments conducted on semi-synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets illustrate that the H-learner consistently operates at the Pareto frontier, effectively combining the strengths of both direct and indirect meta-learners.
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