用可解释的切换机制提升跟车模型,让自动驾驶更懂人类驾驶习惯。
Markov Regime-Switching Intelligent Driver Model for Interpretable Car-Following Behavior
- 引入隐马尔可夫模型,让跟车行为随驾驶状态动态切换模式。
- 在HighD数据上验证,能准确识别出不同驾驶行为与交通场景。
- 适合做交通仿真、自动驾驶安全评估和人因智能系统开发。
精准且可解释的跟车模型对交通仿真和自动驾驶发展至关重要。然而,经典模型如智能驾驶者模型(IDM)受限于简化的单模式结构,无法捕捉人类驾驶的多模态特性——同一驾驶状态可能引发多种行为,迫使模型平均化处理,降低拟合度且参数难以解释。为此,我们提出一种基于因子隐马尔可夫模型的分段式框架(FHMM-IDM),通过两个独立的隐马尔可夫过程,分别建模内在驾驶模式(如激进加速、稳态跟车)和外部交通场景(如自由流、拥堵、停走)。利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)进行贝叶斯推断,联合估计各模式下的参数、转移动态及潜在状态轨迹。在HighD数据集上的实验表明,该模型能揭示人类驾驶中可解释的行为结构,有效解耦驾驶员动作与交通情境,并揭示动态切换模式。该框架为不确定环境下上下文依赖的驾驶行为建模提供了可操作且原则性的解决方案,显著提升交通仿真的保真度、安全分析效率,以及更以人为本的ADAS开发。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate and interpretable car-following models are essential for traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle development. However, classical models like the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) are fundamentally limited by their parsimonious and single-regime structure. They fail to capture the multi-modal nature of human driving, where a single driving state (e.g., speed, relative speed, and gap) can elicit many different driver actions. This forces the model to average across distinct behaviors, reducing its fidelity and making its parameters difficult to interpret. To overcome this, we introduce a regime-switching framework that allows driving behavior to be governed by different IDM parameter sets, each corresponding to an interpretable behavioral mode. This design enables the model to dynamically switch between interpretable behavioral modes, rather than averaging across diverse driving contexts. We instantiate the framework using a Factorial Hidden Markov Model with IDM dynamics (FHMM-IDM), which explicitly separates intrinsic driving regimes (e.g., aggressive acceleration, steady-state following) from external traffic scenarios (e.g., free-flow, congestion, stop-and-go) through two independent latent Markov processes. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to jointly estimate the regime-specific parameters, transition dynamics, and latent state trajectories. Experiments on the HighD dataset demonstrate that FHMM-IDM uncovers interpretable structure in human driving, effectively disentangling internal driver actions from contextual traffic conditions and revealing dynamic regime-switching patterns. This framework provides a tractable and principled solution to modeling context-dependent driving behavior under uncertainty, offering improvements in the fidelity of traffic simulations, the efficacy of safety analyses, and the development of more human-centric ADAS.
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