arXiv:2506.15397cs.LGcs.DS2025-06ICML被引 3

未知传播图下,联合学习图结构与疫苗接种策略以加速疫情消退。

Learn to Vaccinate: Combining Structure Learning and Effective Vaccination for Epidemic and Outbreak Control

  • 基于包含-排除法学习未知传播图,给出样本复杂度理论保证。
  • 针对谱半径最小化问题提出多项式时间算法,对树宽有界的图可高效求解。
  • 适用于真实疫情数据,适合防疫决策者与网络分析研究者参考。

易感-感染-易感(SIS)模型广泛用于描述信息或非免疫性传染病在图上的传播。面对高度传染性疾病时,如何最优地选择接种个体以最小化疫情消退时间是一个关键问题。以往工作表明该问题与NP难的谱半径最小化(SRM)密切相关,但均假设图结构已知,这在实际中往往不成立。本文研究在图未知、仅可观测节点感染状态的条件下,最小化疫情消退时间的问题。为此,将问题分解为图结构学习与有效疫苗接种策略设计两部分。提出一种基于包含-排除的新型图学习算法,并首次建立了其在图恢复上的样本复杂度。随后,详细阐述了针对SRM问题的最优算法,证明其对树宽有界的图可在顶点数的多项式时间内求解。此外,还设计了一种适用于任意图的高效多项式时间贪心启发式算法。最后,在合成与真实世界数据上进行了实验,数值验证了所提学习与疫苗接种算法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is a widely used model for the spread of information and infectious diseases, particularly non-immunizing ones, on a graph. Given a highly contagious disease, a natural question is how to best vaccinate individuals to minimize the disease's extinction time. While previous works showed that the problem of optimal vaccination is closely linked to the NP-hard Spectral Radius Minimization (SRM) problem, they assumed that the graph is known, which is often not the case in practice. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the extinction time of an outbreak modeled by an SIS model where the graph on which the disease spreads is unknown and only the infection states of the vertices are observed. To this end, we split the problem into two: learning the graph and determining effective vaccination strategies. We propose a novel inclusion-exclusion-based learning algorithm and, unlike previous approaches, establish its sample complexity for graph recovery. We then detail an optimal algorithm for the SRM problem and prove that its running time is polynomial in the number of vertices for graphs with bounded treewidth. This is complemented by an efficient and effective polynomial-time greedy heuristic for any graph. Finally, we present experiments on synthetic and real-world data that numerically validate our learning and vaccination algorithms.

疫情控制图学习疫苗接种动态建模

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