arXiv:2506.15723q-fin.STcs.LG2025-06中稿 · journal Land Use P…被引 1

用可解释的机器学习建模地产价格,兼顾精度与法律可用性

Modern approaches to building interpretable models of the property market using machine learning on the base of mass cadastral valuation

  • 结合线性回归与克里金插值,构建土地价格模型
  • 对公寓采用规则拟合法,自动生成可解释规则提升效果
  • 在可解释性约束下性能媲美黑箱模型,适合法律场景

本文综述了基于俄罗斯滨海边疆区大规模地籍估值数据,构建可解释房地产市场机器学习模型的现代方法。涵盖数据收集、异常值识别、模式分析、价格因子筛选、模型构建与评估全过程。针对土地,结合线性回归与地统计学克里金插值法建立有效模型;对于多房产集中于同一空间点的公寓,传统地统计方法失效,转而采用基于决策树自动生成与选择规则的RuleFit方法。通过与经典黑箱模型随机森林对比,证明在保持可解释性的前提下,模型性能相当。研究显示,即便在法律等强调透明度的实际应用中,仍可构建高效可靠的房地产定价模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we review modern approaches to building interpretable models of property markets using machine learning on the base of mass valuation of property in the Primorye region, Russia. There are numerous potential difficulties one could encounter in the effort to build a good model. Their main source is the huge difference between noisy real market data and ideal data usually used in tutorials on machine learning. This paper covers all stages of modeling: collection of initial data, identification of outliers, search and analysis of patterns in the data, formation and final choice of price factors, building of the model, and evaluation of its efficiency. For each stage, we highlight potential issues and describe sound methods for overcoming emerging difficulties on actual examples. We show that the combination of classical linear regression with kriging (interpolation method of geostatistics) allows to build an effective model for land parcels. For flats, when many objects are attributed to one spatial point, the application of geostatistical methods becomes problematic. Instead, we suggest linear regression with automatic generation and selection of additional rules on the base of decision trees, so called the RuleFit method. We compare the performance of our inherently interpretable models with well-proven "black-box" Random Forest method and demonstrate similar results. Thus we show, that despite such a strong restriction as the requirement of interpretability which is important in practical aspects, for example, legal matters, it is still possible to build effective models of real property markets.

可解释模型地产定价RuleFit地统计

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