提出最优在线赔率设置方法,可应对任意结果数与轮次的赌博风险。
Optimal Online Bookmaking for Any Number of Outcomes
- 基于动态调整赔率,结合贝叶斯-帕累托前沿分析优化策略
- 最坏情况下损失为简单多项式最大根,实现风险可控
- 算法对最优赌徒达理论最优,对次优赌徒自动降低损失
我们研究在线赔率问题,即庄家在事件可能结果上动态调整投注赔率。每轮中,庄家根据赌客累计投注行为调整赔率,目标是在最大化利润的同时控制潜在损失。我们证明:对任意事件和轮次数,在所有可能赌客行为与结果实现的最坏情形下,庄家的最优损失是某个简单多项式的最大实根。该解法表明,庄家可在保持公平性的同时规避财务风险,且其后悔值与埃尔米特多项式存在深刻关联。我们提出高效算法,当面对最优赌客时达到最优损失;在赌客非最优时,损失降至最优机会损失(opportunistic loss),该概念与子博弈完美纳什均衡相关。关键技术贡献在于显式刻画贝尔曼-帕累托前沿,将贝尔曼价值函数的动态规划更新与向量重复博弈中的多目标优化框架统一。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study the Online Bookmaking problem, where a bookmaker dynamically updates betting odds on the possible outcomes of an event. In each betting round, the bookmaker can adjust the odds based on the cumulative betting behavior of gamblers, aiming to maximize profit while mitigating potential loss. We show that for any event and any number of betting rounds, in a worst-case setting over all possible gamblers and outcome realizations, the bookmaker's optimal loss is the largest root of a simple polynomial. Our solution shows that bookmakers can be as fair as desired while avoiding financial risk, and the explicit characterization reveals an intriguing relation between the bookmaker's regret and Hermite polynomials. We develop an efficient algorithm that computes the optimal bookmaking strategy: when facing an optimal gambler, the algorithm achieves the optimal loss, and in rounds where the gambler is suboptimal, it reduces the achieved loss to the optimal opportunistic loss, a notion that is related to subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. The key technical contribution to achieve these results is an explicit characterization of the Bellman-Pareto frontier, which unifies the dynamic programming updates for Bellman's value function with the multi-criteria optimization framework of the Pareto frontier in the context of vector repeated games.
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