arXiv:2506.17036stat.MEcs.LG2025-06被引 1

融合多传感器与故障数据,联合预测多种故障模式下的剩余寿命。

Bayesian Joint Model of Multi-Sensor and Failure Event Data for Multi-Mode Failure Prediction

  • 构建分层贝叶斯框架,统一建模多传感器时序与多模式故障事件。
  • 在喷气发动机数据集上实现高精度预测,不确定性量化更可靠。
  • 适合需要可信可靠性评估的工业系统故障预警场景。

现代工业系统常面临多种故障模式,其运行状态由多个传感器监控,生成多条时间序列信号,同时常有失效时间数据。准确预测系统剩余使用寿命(RUL)需有效结合多传感器时序数据与多模式故障事件数据。现有模型通常独立处理故障模式与RUL预测,忽略二者关联;部分模型虽整合多模式与事件预测,但采用黑箱机器学习方法,缺乏统计严谨性且无法刻画模型与数据中的固有不确定性。本文提出一种统一框架,联合建模多传感器时序数据与多模式故障时间。该模型在分层贝叶斯框架下融合了Cox比例风险模型、卷积多输出高斯过程与多项式故障模式分布,并设置相应先验,实现高精度预测与稳健不确定性量化。通过变分贝叶斯获取后验分布,利用蒙特卡洛采样进行预测。在喷气发动机数据集上的大量数值实验与案例研究验证了所提方法的优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately predicting a system's remaining useful life (RUL) requires effectively leveraging multi-sensor time-series data alongside multi-mode failure event data. In most existing models, failure modes and RUL prediction are performed independently, ignoring the inherent relationship between these two tasks. Some models integrate multiple failure modes and event prediction using black-box machine learning approaches, which lack statistical rigor and cannot characterize the inherent uncertainty in the model and data. This paper introduces a unified approach to jointly model the multi-sensor time-series data and failure time concerning multiple failure modes. This proposed model integrate a Cox proportional hazards model, a Convolved Multi-output Gaussian Process, and multinomial failure mode distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework with corresponding priors, enabling accurate prediction with robust uncertainty quantification. Posterior distributions are effectively obtained by Variational Bayes, and prediction is performed with Monte Carlo sampling. The advantages of the proposed model is validated through extensive numerical and case studies with jet-engine dataset.

故障预测贝叶斯方法多模式不确定性量化

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