用语言描述提升台风路径预测精度
TyphoFormer: Language-Augmented Transformer for Accurate Typhoon Track Forecasting
- 用大模型生成气象语义文本,作为额外输入增强预测
- 在HURDAT2数据集上显著优于现有方法,尤其面对复杂路径时
- 适合需要高可靠性台风预警的气象机构和应急部门
准确的台风路径预测对早期预警和灾害应对至关重要。尽管基于Transformer的模型在智能城市中人类和车辆密集轨迹的时序建模上表现优异,但通常缺乏提升稀疏气象轨迹(如台风路径)预测可靠性的广泛上下文知识。为此,我们提出TyphoFormer,一种将自然语言描述作为辅助提示的新框架。针对每个时间步,利用大语言模型(LLM)基于北大西洋飓风数据库中的数值属性生成简洁的文本描述,这些描述捕捉高层气象语义,并被嵌入为前置的特殊标记,附加到数值时序输入前。通过统一的Transformer编码器融合文本与序列信息,使模型能够利用仅靠数值特征无法获取的上下文线索。在HURDAT2基准上的大量实验表明,TyphoFormer持续优于其他先进基线方法,尤其在非线性路径突变和历史观测有限的挑战场景下表现更优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate typhoon track forecasting is crucial for early system warning and disaster response. While Transformer-based models have demonstrated strong performance in modeling the temporal dynamics of dense trajectories of humans and vehicles in smart cities, they usually lack access to broader contextual knowledge that enhances the forecasting reliability of sparse meteorological trajectories, such as typhoon tracks. To address this challenge, we propose TyphoFormer, a novel framework that incorporates natural language descriptions as auxiliary prompts to improve typhoon trajectory forecasting. For each time step, we use Large Language Model (LLM) to generate concise textual descriptions based on the numerical attributes recorded in the North Atlantic hurricane database. The language descriptions capture high-level meteorological semantics and are embedded as auxiliary special tokens prepended to the numerical time series input. By integrating both textual and sequential information within a unified Transformer encoder, TyphoFormer enables the model to leverage contextual cues that are otherwise inaccessible through numerical features alone. Extensive experiments are conducted on HURDAT2 benchmark, results show that TyphoFormer consistently outperforms other state-of-the-art baseline methods, particularly under challenging scenarios involving nonlinear path shifts and limited historical observations.
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