用可学习提示激活大模型,提升时序预测能力
Time-Prompt: Integrated Heterogeneous Prompts for Unlocking LLMs in Time Series Forecasting
- 设计可学习软提示与文本化硬提示统一框架
- 跨模态对齐使时序与文本信息融合,提升理解
- 在6个公开数据集和碳排放数据上表现优异
时序预测旨在建模变量间的时序依赖关系以推断未来状态,在现实场景中具有重要意义和广泛应用。尽管深度学习方法已取得显著进展,但在长期预测中仍表现不佳。近期研究显示大语言模型(LLMs)在时序预测中表现出色,但其实际效用仍受质疑。为此,我们提出Time-Prompt框架,用于激活LLMs进行时序预测。首先,构建包含可学习软提示的统一提示范式,引导LLM行为,并通过文本化硬提示增强时序表征。其次,设计语义空间嵌入与跨模态对齐模块,实现时序与文本数据的融合,提升LLM对任务的整体理解。最后,利用时序数据高效微调LLM参数。此外,我们聚焦碳排放预测,助力全球碳中和目标。在6个公开数据集和3个碳排放数据集上的综合评估表明,Time-Prompt是强大的时序预测框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting aims to model temporal dependencies among variables for future state inference, holding significant importance and widespread applications in real-world scenarios. Although deep learning-based methods have achieved remarkable progress, they still exhibit suboptimal performance in long-term forecasting. Recent research demonstrates that large language models (LLMs) achieve promising performance in time series forecasting, but this progress is still met with skepticism about whether LLMs are truly useful for this task. To address this, we propose Time-Prompt, a framework for activating LLMs for time series forecasting. Specifically, we first construct a unified prompt paradigm with learnable soft prompts to guide the LLM's behavior and textualized hard prompts to enhance the time series representations. Second, to enhance LLM' comprehensive understanding of the forecasting task, we design a semantic space embedding and cross-modal alignment module to achieve fusion of temporal and textual data. Finally, we efficiently fine-tune the LLM's parameters using time series data. Furthermore, we focus on carbon emissions, aiming to provide a modest contribution to global carbon neutrality. Comprehensive evaluations on 6 public datasets and 3 carbon emission datasets demonstrate that Time-Prompt is a powerful framework for time series forecasting.
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