arXiv:2506.17634stat.MLcs.LG2025-06被引 2

用路径签名构建可扩展的机器学习模型,高效处理时间序列与图数据。

Scalable Machine Learning Algorithms using Path Signatures

  • 基于路径签名设计低秩张量结构,实现长程依赖的高效建模。
  • 提出签名核高斯过程,支持不确定性感知的时间序列预测。
  • 适合研究时间序列、图神经网络与可扩展算法的学者参考。

随机分析与机器学习的交叉领域快速发展,路径签名——通过迭代积分提供路径忠实且分层表示——为序列与结构化数据提供了原则性且通用的特征映射。源于粗糙路径理论,路径签名具有重参数化不变性,适用于建模动态演化、长程依赖和不规则采样等现实挑战。本论文研究如何在可扩展机器学习流水线中发挥路径签名的表达能力,提出一系列结合理论稳健性与计算效率的模型:基于签名核协方差函数的高斯过程,用于不确定性感知的时间序列建模;Seq2Tens框架,利用权重空间中的低秩张量结构实现长程依赖的可扩展深度建模;以及基于图期望签名诱导的拟椭圆扩散过程的图模型,作为标准图神经网络的表达丰富且可处理替代方案。进一步发展包括随机傅里叶签名特征(具有理论保证的可扩展核近似),以及结合高斯过程、签名核与随机特征的递归稀疏谱签名高斯过程,具备多步预测中自适应上下文长度的合理遗忘机制。本论文旨在成为方法工具包与概念桥梁,为当前基于签名的可扩展序列与结构化数据学习提供参考。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The interface between stochastic analysis and machine learning is a rapidly evolving field, with path signatures - iterated integrals that provide faithful, hierarchical representations of paths - offering a principled and universal feature map for sequential and structured data. Rooted in rough path theory, path signatures are invariant to reparameterization and well-suited for modelling evolving dynamics, long-range dependencies, and irregular sampling - common challenges in real-world time series and graph data. This thesis investigates how to harness the expressive power of path signatures within scalable machine learning pipelines. It introduces a suite of models that combine theoretical robustness with computational efficiency, bridging rough path theory with probabilistic modelling, deep learning, and kernel methods. Key contributions include: Gaussian processes with signature kernel-based covariance functions for uncertainty-aware time series modelling; the Seq2Tens framework, which employs low-rank tensor structure in the weight space for scalable deep modelling of long-range dependencies; and graph-based models where expected signatures over graphs induce hypo-elliptic diffusion processes, offering expressive yet tractable alternatives to standard graph neural networks. Further developments include Random Fourier Signature Features, a scalable kernel approximation with theoretical guarantees, and Recurrent Sparse Spectrum Signature Gaussian Processes, which combine Gaussian processes, signature kernels, and random features with a principled forgetting mechanism for multi-horizon time series forecasting with adaptive context length. We hope this thesis serves as both a methodological toolkit and a conceptual bridge, and provides a useful reference for the current state of the art in scalable, signature-based learning for sequential and structured data.

路径签名时间序列可扩展图神经网络

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