arXiv:2506.17929cs.LGcs.AI2025-06

ASTER让时空预测直接生成高效资源调度决策。

ASTER: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Early Decision Model for Dynamic Resource Allocation

  • 设计动态资源感知的时空交互模块,自适应捕捉长短时依赖。
  • 基于多目标强化学习生成偏好导向的干预策略,提升资源利用效率。
  • 在6个下游指标上超越现有方法,适合应急响应等实时决策场景。

支持决策一直是时空智能领域的核心愿景。尽管先前研究提升了时空预测的时效性与准确性,但将预测转化为可执行策略仍是关键挑战,主要源于预测与决策阶段的割裂,显著降低下游效率。例如,在应急响应中,重点是成功调配资源并实施干预,而非仅仅预测事件发生。为此,提出自适应时空早期决策模型(ASTER),重构预测范式,从事件预判转向可操作的决策支持。该框架确保信息直接用于决策,以最大化整体效能。具体而言,ASTER引入资源感知的时空交互模块(RaST),在动态资源条件下自适应捕捉长短期依赖,生成上下文感知的时空表示。为直接生成可执行决策,进一步设计基于多目标强化学习的偏好导向决策代理(Poda),通过推导特定偏好与动态约束下的最优动作,将预测信号转化为资源高效的干预策略。在四个基准数据集上的实验表明,ASTER在六个下游指标上均达到最先进性能,显著提升早期预测精度与资源分配效果。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Supporting decision-making has long been a central vision in the field of spatio-temporal intelligence. While prior work has improved the timeliness and accuracy of spatio-temporal forecasting, converting these forecasts into actionable strategies remains a key challenge. A main limitation is the decoupling of the prediction and the downstream decision phases, which can significantly degrade the downstream efficiency. For example, in emergency response, the priority is successful resource allocation and intervention, not just incident prediction. To this end, it is essential to propose an Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Early Decision model (ASTER) that reforms the forecasting paradigm from event anticipation to actionable decision support. This framework ensures that information is directly used for decision-making, thereby maximizing overall effectiveness. Specifically, ASTER introduces a new Resource-aware Spatio-Temporal interaction module (RaST) that adaptively captures long- and short-term dependencies under dynamic resource conditions, producing context-aware spatiotemporal representations. To directly generate actionable decisions, we further design a Preference-oriented decision agent (Poda) based on multi-objective reinforcement learning, which transforms predictive signals into resource-efficient intervention strategies by deriving optimal actions under specific preferences and dynamic constraints. Experimental results on four benchmark datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of ASTER in improving both early prediction accuracy and resource allocation outcomes across six downstream metrics.

时空建模决策支持强化学习资源分配

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