用提升模型分析企业调整对财务的影响,考虑了动作的时间顺序。
Which Company Adjustment Matter? Insights from Uplift Modeling on Financial Health
- 将企业调整简化为二元处理,用元学习器和经典模型分析效果。
- 提出MTDnet框架,实验表明时间顺序显著影响调整效果评估。
- 适用于关注企业决策动态影响的金融分析师与管理者。
提升模型在多个领域取得显著成功,尤其在在线营销中。本文将其应用于分析企业调整对其财务状况的影响,将调整视为干预措施。尽管已有大量关于二元、多类及连续处理的研究,但企业调整通常更为复杂,涉及一系列随时间变化的动作。其效果评估需同时考虑个体特征与动作的时间顺序。本研究收集了卢森堡企业财务报表及报告行为的真实数据集进行实验。首先,采用两种元学习器和三种经典提升模型,将调整简化为二元处理进行分析;随后,提出一种新框架MTDnet以应对调整的时间依赖性,实验结果表明考虑时间顺序至关重要。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Uplift modeling has achieved significant success in various fields, particularly in online marketing. It is a method that primarily utilizes machine learning and deep learning to estimate individual treatment effects. This paper we apply uplift modeling to analyze the effect of company adjustment on their financial status, and we treat these adjustment as treatments or interventions in this study. Although there have been extensive studies and application regarding binary treatments, multiple treatments, and continuous treatments, company adjustment are often more complex than these scenarios, as they constitute a series of multiple time-dependent actions. The effect estimation of company adjustment needs to take into account not only individual treatment traits but also the temporal order of this series of treatments. This study collects a real-world data set about company financial statements and reported behavior in Luxembourg for the experiments. First, we use two meta-learners and three other well-known uplift models to analyze different company adjustment by simplifying the adjustment as binary treatments. Furthermore, we propose a new uplift modeling framework (MTDnet) to address the time-dependent nature of these adjustment, and the experimental result shows the necessity of considering the timing of these adjustment.
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