arXiv:2506.19567cs.LGcs.AI2025-06被引 1

针对少样本时间序列预测,提出自适应特征框架提升泛化与个性化能力

FAF: A Feature-Adaptive Framework for Few-Shot Time Series Forecasting

  • 分三模块:通用知识、任务特异性区域、动态选择机制
  • 在五个真实数据集上优于基线,最高提升41.81%(CO₂数据集)
  • 适合新城市/新品类等历史数据少的场景

多任务与少样本时间序列预测常见于新产品在不同城市的上线场景。传统方法因忽略任务间的通用与特定特征,面临历史数据不足问题。为此,我们提出特征自适应时间序列预测框架(FAF),包含三个核心组件:通用知识模块(GKM)、任务特异性模块(TSM)和秩模块(RM)。训练阶段,GKM通过元学习提取跨相关任务的通用特征;TSM则通过多个功能区域学习各任务的局部动态特性。测试阶段,RM根据输入序列特征动态选择最相关的TSM功能区域,结合GKM学习到的通用知识生成预测。该设计使FAF在稀疏观测下仍具鲁棒性与个性化。我们在五个真实世界数据集上评估了少样本时间序列预测设置下的FAF表现。实验表明,其持续优于三类基线方法,尤其在CO₂排放数据集上比最优基线iTransformer提升41.81%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-task and few-shot time series forecasting tasks are commonly encountered in scenarios such as the launch of new products in different cities. However, traditional time series forecasting methods suffer from insufficient historical data, which stems from a disregard for the generalized and specific features among different tasks. For the aforementioned challenges, we propose the Feature-Adaptive Time Series Forecasting Framework (FAF), which consists of three key components: the Generalized Knowledge Module (GKM), the Task-Specific Module (TSM), and the Rank Module (RM). During training phase, the GKM is updated through a meta-learning mechanism that enables the model to extract generalized features across related tasks. Meanwhile, the TSM is trained to capture diverse local dynamics through multiple functional regions, each of which learns specific features from individual tasks. During testing phase, the RM dynamically selects the most relevant functional region from the TSM based on input sequence features, which is then combined with the generalized knowledge learned by the GKM to generate accurate forecasts. This design enables FAF to achieve robust and personalized forecasting even with sparse historical observations We evaluate FAF on five diverse real-world datasets under few-shot time series forecasting settings. Experimental results demonstrate that FAF consistently outperforms baselines that include three categories of time series forecasting methods. In particular, FAF achieves a 41.81\% improvement over the best baseline, iTransformer, on the CO$_2$ emissions dataset.

时间序列少样本学习自适应预测

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