arXiv:2506.19650cs.AIstat.ME2025-06NeurIPS被引 2

提出在循环因果图上识别宏观效应的新方法,无需额外假设。

Identifying Macro Causal Effects in C-DMGs over DMGs

  • 将因果图抽象为变量簇的结构,处理现实中的循环依赖。
  • 证明了在循环因果图上do演算对宏观效应始终有效且完备。
  • 适用于高维复杂系统,尤其适合有周期性结构的真实场景研究者。

do演算在无环有向混合图(ADMG)中可完全识别因果效应,但在高维现实场景中构建完整ADMG常不可行。为此,聚类有向混合图(C-DMGs)作为部分指定的因果表示受到关注,其将变量分组以呈现更抽象的因果关系。尽管允许环路存在,先前研究证明:当所有簇大小大于1时,do演算对C-DMGs over ADMGs的宏观因果效应仍具完备性。然而,真实系统常具有结构性循环。输入输出结构因果模型(ioSCMs)扩展了传统结构因果模型(SCM),允许循环,并诱导出新的图结构——有向混合图(DMG)。我们在此定义了基于DMG的C-DMGs。本文证明:与ADMG情形不同,do演算在C-DMGs over DMGs中无条件地对宏观因果效应是声名且完备的。此外,此前针对C-DMGs over ADMGs提出的非可识别性图形准则可自然扩展至一类C-DMGs over DMGs。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The do-calculus is a sound and complete tool for identifying causal effects in acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) induced by structural causal models (SCMs). However, in many real-world applications, especially in high-dimensional setting, constructing a fully specified ADMG is often infeasible. This limitation has led to growing interest in partially specified causal representations, particularly through cluster-directed mixed graphs (C-DMGs), which group variables into clusters and offer a more abstract yet practical view of causal dependencies. While these representations can include cycles, recent work has shown that the do-calculus remains sound and complete for identifying macro-level causal effects in C-DMGs over ADMGs under the assumption that all clusters size are greater than 1. Nevertheless, real-world systems often exhibit cyclic causal dynamics at the structural level. To account for this, input-output structural causal models (ioSCMs) have been introduced as a generalization of SCMs that allow for cycles. ioSCMs induce another type of graph structure known as a directed mixed graph (DMG). Analogous to the ADMG setting, one can define C-DMGs over DMGs as high-level representations of causal relations among clusters of variables. In this paper, we prove that, unlike in the ADMG setting, the do-calculus is unconditionally sound and complete for identifying macro causal effects in C-DMGs over DMGs. Furthermore, we show that the graphical criteria for non-identifiability of macro causal effects previously established C-DMGs over ADMGs naturally extends to a subset of C-DMGs over DMGs.

因果推断循环因果图模型

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