arXiv:2506.19806cs.CYcs.CL2025-06被引 18

LLM社会模拟需设边界,否则难揭示真实行为多样性。

LLM-Based Social Simulations Require a Boundary

  • 用边界约束提升LLM模拟的多样性,避免输出趋同
  • 实证发现多数研究低估了行为方差,低于真实人类群体
  • 适合关注社会行为差异的研究者,需警惕过度泛化

本文主张,基于大语言模型(LLM)的社会模拟必须设立明确边界,才能对社会科学做出有意义贡献。尽管LLM在模拟人类行为方面潜力巨大,但其倾向于生成同质化输出,表现为‘平均人格’,这从根本上限制了捕捉复杂社会动态所需的行为多样性。我们分析了异质性在社会模拟中的重要性及当前LLM的不足,考察了模型输出均值与方差的关系。通过对代表性研究的系统回顾发现,验证方法常无法匹配研究问题对异质性的要求:虽多数论文包含与真实数据的对比,但不足一半明确评估行为方差,且大多数报告的方差低于人类群体。为此我们建议:(1)根据研究问题的异质性需求调整验证深度;(2)在报告均值一致性的同时显式呈现方差;(3)当方差不足时,仅限于描述集体层面的定性模式。我们并非否定LLM模拟,而是倡导一种边界意识的方法,以确保其真正推动社会科学研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This position paper argues that LLM-based social simulations require clear boundaries to make meaningful contributions to social science. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promising capabilities for simulating human behavior, their tendency to produce homogeneous outputs, acting as an "average persona", fundamentally limits their ability to capture the behavioral diversity essential for complex social dynamics. We examine why heterogeneity matters for social simulations and how current LLMs fall short, analyzing the relationship between mean alignment and variance in LLM-generated behaviors. Through a systematic review of representative studies, we find that validation practices often fail to match the heterogeneity requirements of research questions: while most papers include ground truth comparisons, fewer than half explicitly assess behavioral variance, and most that do report lower variance than human populations. We propose that researchers should: (1) match validation depth to the heterogeneity demands of their research questions, (2) explicitly report variance alongside mean alignment, and (3) constrain claims to collective-level qualitative patterns when variance is insufficient. Rather than dismissing LLM-based simulation, we advocate for a boundary-aware approach that ensures these methods contribute genuine insights to social science.

社会模拟大模型行为多样性边界设定

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