用最优传输建模病理异质性,提升全切片图像生存预测准确率
OTSurv: A Novel Multiple Instance Learning Framework for Survival Prediction with Heterogeneity-aware Optimal Transport
- 从最优传输视角构建双约束MIL框架,融合全局长尾分布与局部置信度
- 在6个基准上平均C-index提升3.6%,达新SOTA,log-rank检验显著
- 可解释性强,适合数字病理中需可靠预测的临床研究场景
基于全切片图像(WSIs)的生存预测可建模为多实例学习(MIL)问题。现有MIL方法常无法显式捕捉WSIs中的病理异质性,包括全局的长尾形态分布和局部的图块级预测不确定性。最优传输(OT)通过引入边缘分布约束,为建模此类异质性提供了理论基础。本文提出OTSurv,一种从最优传输视角出发的新型MIL框架。具体而言,OTSurv将生存预测建模为一个异质性感知的OT问题,包含两个约束:(1) 全局长尾约束,通过调节运输质量分配来避免模式崩溃与过度均匀化;(2) 局部不确定性感知约束,通过逐步提高总运输质量,优先关注高置信度图块并抑制噪声。随后,将带有约束的初始OT问题重构成可高效求解的非平衡OT形式,采用硬件友好的矩阵缩放算法。实验表明,OTSurv在六个主流基准上均取得新的最先进结果,平均C-index绝对提升3.6%。此外,模型在log-rank检验中表现统计显著,并具备高可解释性,是数字病理中生存预测的强大工具。代码已开源:https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.
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