实时估算路面粗糙度，提升越野自动驾驶安全性。

This research addresses critical autonomous vehicle control challenges arising from road roughness variation, which induces course deviations and potential loss of road contact during steering operations. We present a novel real-time road roughness estimation system employing Bayesian calibration methodology that processes axle accelerations to predict terrain roughness with quantifiable confidence measures. The technical framework integrates a Gaussian process surrogate model with a simulated half-vehicle model, systematically processing vehicle velocity and road surface roughness parameters to generate corresponding axle acceleration responses. The Bayesian calibration routine performs inverse estimation of road roughness from observed accelerations and velocities, yielding posterior distributions that quantify prediction uncertainty for adaptive risk management. Training data generation utilizes Latin Hypercube sampling across comprehensive velocity and roughness parameter spaces, while the calibrated model integrates seamlessly with a Simplex controller architecture to dynamically adjust velocity limits based on real-time roughness predictions. Experimental validation on stochastically generated surfaces featuring varying roughness regions demonstrates robust real-time characterization capabilities, with the integrated Simplex control strategy effectively enhancing autonomous vehicle operational safety through proactive surface condition response. This innovative Bayesian framework establishes a comprehensive foundation for mitigating roughness-related operational risks while simultaneously improving efficiency and safety margins in autonomous vehicle systems.