arXiv:2506.22129cs.LG2025-06

用集成学习提升地震后建筑损毁等级预测精度

Earthquake Damage Grades Prediction using An Ensemble Approach Integrating Advanced Machine and Deep Learning Models

  • 融合多种机器学习与深度学习模型,采用集成方法提升预测能力
  • 通过SMOTE技术缓解数据不平衡问题,提高对少数类损伤等级的识别率
  • 适用于灾害应急响应、城市防灾规划人员参考

大地震发生后,评估建筑物和基础设施的损毁程度对于协调灾后救援行动至关重要,需准确判断损毁范围与空间分布以优先安排搜救任务和资源分配。准确预测震后建筑损毁等级对有效应对与恢复具有重要意义,能显著减少生命财产损失,并加快救援资金的调配效率。以往研究已证明多分类方法(尤其是XGBoost)结合正则化技术在处理类别不平衡问题上的有效性。类别不平衡会导致模型偏向多数类而低估少数类。本研究利用合成少数类过采样技术(SMOTE)缓解该问题,探索多种多分类机器学习与深度学习模型及集成方法,用于预测结构损毁等级。通过系统性特征工程实验与不同训练策略,揭示影响地震脆弱性的关键因素,并借助混淆矩阵等手段评估模型性能,深化对地震损毁预测效果的理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the aftermath of major earthquakes, evaluating structural and infrastructural damage is vital for coordinating post-disaster response efforts. This includes assessing damage's extent and spatial distribution to prioritize rescue operations and resource allocation. Accurately estimating damage grades to buildings post-earthquake is paramount for effective response and recovery, given the significant impact on lives and properties, underscoring the urgency of streamlining relief fund allocation processes. Previous studies have shown the effectiveness of multi-class classification, especially XGBoost, along with other machine learning models and ensembling methods, incorporating regularization to address class imbalance. One consequence of class imbalance is that it may give rise to skewed models that undervalue minority classes and give preference to the majority class. This research deals with the problem of class imbalance with the help of the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE). We delve into multiple multi-class classification machine learning, deep learning models, and ensembling methods to forecast structural damage grades. The study elucidates performance determinants through comprehensive feature manipulation experiments and diverse training approaches. It identifies key factors contributing to seismic vulnerability while evaluating model performance using techniques like the confusion matrix further to enhance understanding of the effectiveness of earthquake damage prediction.

地震预测机器学习损伤评估

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