arXiv:2506.22342cs.LGcs.AI2025-06被引 2

用隐私保护技术融合敏感数据,提升疫情预测准确性。

Improving Epidemic Analyses with Privacy-Preserving Integration of Sensitive Data

  • 将深度神经网络与机制化疫情模型结合,在保证差分隐私下联合学习参数。
  • 在三个地区新冠数据上验证,隐私约束下预测精度显著优于纯深度学习方法。
  • 适合关注疫情建模、政策模拟与数据隐私的公共卫生研究者使用。

疫情分析日益依赖异构数据集,其中许多为敏感数据,需强隐私保护。尽管差分隐私(DP)已成为机器学习与数据共享的标准,但在流行病建模中的应用仍有限。本文提出DPEpiNN框架,将深度神经网络与基于SEIRM的元人口模型统一集成,并在正式的差分隐私保障下运行。该框架支持多步预测、实时估算(nowcasting)、有效再生数(R_t)估计及干预分析等任务,通过可微分管道实现。模型从公开与敏感数据中联合学习疫情参数,利用输入扰动机制保障隐私。基于三个地区的新冠肺炎数据评估显示,即使在强隐私约束下,引入敏感数据仍显著提升预测性能。相比深度学习基线,DPEpiNN在预测与实时估算上表现更优,且能可靠估计R_t。由于差分隐私的后处理性质,学习到的传播模型本身具有内在隐私性,支持如社交隔离干预的下游政策仿真。本工作表明,机制可解释性、预测准确性与严格隐私保障可在现代疫情建模中协同实现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Epidemic analyses increasingly rely on heterogeneous datasets, many of which are sensitive and require strong privacy protection. Although differential privacy (DP) has become a standard in machine learning and data sharing, its adoption in epidemiological modeling remains limited. In this work, we introduce DPEpiNN, a unified framework that integrates deep neural networks with a mechanistic SEIRM-based metapopulation model under formal DP guarantees. DPEpiNN supports multiple epidemic tasks (including multi-step forecasting, nowcasting, effective reproduction number $(R_t)$ estimation, and intervention analysis) within a single differentiable pipeline. The framework jointly learns epidemic parameters from heterogeneous public and sensitive datasets, while ensuring privacy via input perturbation mechanisms. We evaluate DPEpiNN using COVID-19 data from three regions. Results show that incorporating sensitive datasets substantially improves predictive performance even under strong privacy constraints. Compared with a deep learning baseline, DPEpiNN achieves higher accuracy in forecasting and nowcasting while producing reliable estimates of $R_t$. Furthermore, the learned epidemic transmission models remain inherently private due to the post-processing property of differential privacy, enabling downstream policy analyses such as simulation of social distancing interventions. Our work demonstrates that interpretability (through mechanistic modeling), predictive accuracy (through neural integration), and rigorous privacy guarantees can be jointly achieved in modern epidemic modeling.

疫情建模差分隐私多源数据融合

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