arXiv:2506.22729cs.DLcs.CY2025-06

科学突破期,固守旧方向反而降低影响力。

Persistence Paradox in Dynamic Science

  • 分析5000+科学家20年轨迹,发现旧领域成功者转型慢
  • 坚持传统方法者引用排名下降,形成‘僵化惩罚’
  • 有策略转向新趋势者获最大收益,适合转型研究者

持久常被视为科学美德。本文挑战这一观点,指出其具有情境性,尤其在范式转变时期,持久可能成为负担。聚焦2012年AlexNet引发的深度学习革命,分析了在前十年活跃于顶级机器学习会议的5000余名科学家的职业轨迹。研究发现,顶尖会议逐渐更重视前沿深度学习进展,取代传统统计学习方法。科学家应对方式差异显著:以往成功的或隶属于旧团队的研究者适应较慢,经历‘僵化惩罚’——不愿采纳新方向导致学术影响力下降(以引文百分位排名衡量)。相反,采取战略性适应(有选择地转向新兴趋势,同时保留与原有专长的弱关联)的学者收益最大。宏观与微观分析表明,科学突破是重构领域权力结构的机制。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Persistence is often regarded as a virtue in science. In this paper, however, we challenge this conventional view by highlighting its contextual nature, particularly how persistence can become a liability during periods of paradigm shift. We focus on the deep learning revolution catalyzed by AlexNet in 2012. Analyzing the 20-year career trajectories of over 5,000 scientists who were active in top machine learning venues during the preceding decade, we examine how their research focus and output evolved. We first uncover a dynamic period in which leading venues increasingly prioritized cutting-edge deep learning developments that displaced relatively traditional statistical learning methods. Scientists responded to these changes in markedly different ways. Those who were previously successful or affiliated with old teams adapted more slowly, experiencing what we term a rigidity penalty - a reluctance to embrace new directions leading to a decline in scientific impact, as measured by citation percentile rank. In contrast, scientists who pursued strategic adaptation - selectively pivoting toward emerging trends while preserving weak connections to prior expertise - reaped the greatest benefits. Taken together, our macro- and micro-level findings show that scientific breakthroughs act as mechanisms that reconfigure power structures within a field.

科学社会学范式转移研究影响

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