剖析大模型社会影响，推动基于证据的AI治理
The Societal Impact of Foundation Models: Advancing Evidence-based AI Policy
- 从技术与社会共演视角解析大模型能力、风险与供应链
- 提出模型级评估与组织级指数，提升透明度与可衡量性
- 为政策制定提供科学依据，适合关注AI治理的研究者
人工智能是人类最具前景的技术，得益于基础模型的强大能力。然而，同一技术也带来困惑与担忧：基础模型尚不被充分理解，可能引发广泛危害。本论文围绕三大主题展开：第一，概念框架——基础模型的能力、风险及其在更广经济体系中的供应链；第二，实证洞察——通过模型级评估与组织级指数提升透明度；第三，从认知到行动——对基础模型社会影响的深入理解有助于推动基于证据的AI政策。三者结合，本研究为实现人工智能时代的更好社会成果迈出关键一步，构建了支撑更优AI治理的科学基础与研究-政策接口。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Artificial intelligence is humanity's most promising technology because of the remarkable capabilities offered by foundation models. Yet, the same technology brings confusion and consternation: foundation models are poorly understood and they may precipitate a wide array of harms. This dissertation explains how technology and society coevolve in the age of AI, organized around three themes. First, the conceptual framing: the capabilities, risks, and the supply chain that grounds foundation models in the broader economy. Second, the empirical insights that enrich the conceptual foundations: transparency created via evaluations at the model level and indexes at the organization level. Finally, the transition from understanding to action: superior understanding of the societal impact of foundation models advances evidence-based AI policy. View together, this dissertation makes inroads into achieving better societal outcomes in the age of AI by building the scientific foundations and research-policy interface required for better AI governance.
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