arXiv:2506.23201cs.LGcs.SY2025-06被引 6

用外部数据动态调整模型参数,提升家庭用电预测精度与鲁棒性

External Data-Enhanced Meta-Representation for Adaptive Probabilistic Load Forecasting

  • 用超网络将天气等外部因素转化为可调节模型参数的元知识
  • 在多个数据集上显著优于现有方法,误差降低12%以上
  • 适合电力系统、智能电网研究者及能源算法工程师参考

随着可再生能源渗透率上升和需求侧灵活性增强,精准的家庭用电负荷预测对电网可靠性至关重要。现有统计与机器学习模型通常将天气、日历效应、电价等外部因素作为输入特征,忽视其异质性,限制了有用信息的提取。本文提出范式转变:外部数据应作为元知识,动态调整预测模型本身。基于此,设计基于超网络的元表示框架,根据外部条件调节基础深度学习模型的特定参数,兼具表达力与适应性。进一步引入专家混合(MoE)机制,通过选择性激活专家提升效率,并过滤冗余输入增强鲁棒性。所提模型名为M2oE2,在多个负荷数据集上显著提升准确率与鲁棒性,额外开销极小,优于当前最优方法。代码与数据集已公开于https://github.com/haorandd/M2oE2_load_forecast.git。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate residential load forecasting is critical for power system reliability with rising renewable integration and demand-side flexibility. However, most statistical and machine learning models treat external factors, such as weather, calendar effects, and pricing, as extra input, ignoring their heterogeneity, and thus limiting the extraction of useful external information. We propose a paradigm shift: external data should serve as meta-knowledge to dynamically adapt the forecasting model itself. Based on this idea, we design a meta-representation framework using hypernetworks that modulate selected parameters of a base Deep Learning (DL) model in response to external conditions. This provides both expressivity and adaptability. We further integrate a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) mechanism to enhance efficiency through selective expert activation, while improving robustness by filtering redundant external inputs. The resulting model, dubbed as a Meta Mixture of Experts for External data (M2oE2), achieves substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness with limited additional overhead, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods in diverse load datasets. The dataset and source code are publicly available at https://github.com/haorandd/M2oE2\_load\_forecast.git.

负荷预测元学习MoE电力系统

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