AICO通过统计检验精准识别影响模型预测的关键特征。
AICO: Feature Significance Tests for Supervised Learning
- 基于特征遮蔽的非渐近假设检验,无需重训练或代理模型。
- 提供精确的有限样本特征p值与置信区间,支持可解释性推断。
- 适用于大规模模型,适合需要透明可信决策的研究与应用。
机器学习在现代科学、产业和政策中至关重要,但其预测能力常以缺乏透明度为代价:我们很少知道哪些输入特征真正驱动了模型预测。缺乏这种理解,研究者无法得出可靠结论,从业者难以确保公平性与问责性,政策制定者也无法信任或监管基于模型的决策。现有特征影响评估工具存在局限,多数缺乏统计保障,且需昂贵的重新训练或代理建模,对大型现代模型不切实际。我们提出AICO,一种广泛适用的框架,将模型可解释性转化为高效的统计分析。AICO通过遮蔽特征信息并测量预测性能变化,检验每个特征是否真实提升表现。该方法通过简单的非渐近假设检验程序,提供精确的有限样本特征p值和置信区间,无需重训练、代理建模或分布假设,适用于大规模算法。在控制实验和真实应用(如信用评分、抵押贷款行为预测)中,AICO可靠识别出驱动模型行为的关键变量,为可信赖的机器学习提供了可扩展且统计严谨的路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning is central to modern science, industry, and policy, yet its predictive power often comes at the cost of transparency: we rarely know which input features truly drive a model's predictions. Without such understanding, researchers cannot draw reliable conclusions, practitioners cannot ensure fairness or accountability, and policymakers cannot trust or govern model-based decisions. Existing tools for assessing feature influence are limited; most lack statistical guarantees, and many require costly retraining or surrogate modeling, making them impractical for large modern models. We introduce AICO, a broadly applicable framework that turns model interpretability into an efficient statistical exercise. AICO tests whether each feature genuinely improves predictive performance by masking its information and measuring the resulting change. The method provides exact, finite-sample feature p-values and confidence intervals for feature importance through a simple, non-asymptotic hypothesis testing procedure. It requires no retraining, surrogate modeling, or distributional assumptions, making it feasible for large-scale algorithms. In both controlled experiments and real applications, from credit scoring to mortgage-behavior prediction, AICO reliably identifies the variables that drive model behavior, providing a scalable and statistically principled path toward transparent and trustworthy machine learning.
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