用轻量Transformer模型分析财报风险,更准更透明。
Explainable AI for Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Financial Reports: A Lightweight Hierarchical Transformer Network Approach
- 基于TinyBERT+注意力词云,高效处理长文本财报
- 融合偏度、峰度、索提诺比率,全面评估风险
- 可解释性强,适合金融风控系统实时部署
所有公开交易的美国公司每年提交一份10-K报告,其中包含关键财务健康与风险信息。我们提出TinyXRA——一种轻量且可解释的基于Transformer的模型,自动从这些报告中评估企业风险。不同于以往仅依赖超额收益标准差(经Fama-French模型调整)的方法,该方法对上下行风险一视同仁,而TinyXRA引入偏度、峰度和索提诺比率,实现更全面的风险评估。我们采用TinyBERT作为编码器,高效处理长篇财务文档,并设计了一种新颖的动态注意力词云机制,直观呈现风险信息并过滤无关词汇。该轻量设计支持在多种计算环境下可扩展部署,具备每秒处理数千份文档的实时能力,适用于资源受限的生产系统。我们使用三元组损失进行风险四分位分类,优于现有文献中的成对损失方法,在捕捉风险差异的方向与程度上表现更佳。TinyXRA在2013-2024年跨度的数据集上,连续七年达到最优预测准确率,同时提供透明可解释的风险评估。我们通过系统性移除高关注度词句进行定量消融实验,并结合解释一致性进行定性分析,验证模型有效性。论文最后总结发现、实践意义、局限性及未来方向。代码已开源:https://github.com/Chen-XueWen/TinyXRA。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Every publicly traded U.S. company files an annual 10-K report containing critical insights into financial health and risk. We propose Tiny eXplainable Risk Assessor (TinyXRA), a lightweight and explainable transformer-based model that automatically assesses company risk from these reports. Unlike prior work that relies solely on the standard deviation of excess returns (adjusted for the Fama-French model), which indiscriminately penalizes both upside and downside risk, TinyXRA incorporates skewness, kurtosis, and the Sortino ratio for more comprehensive risk assessment. We leverage TinyBERT as our encoder to efficiently process lengthy financial documents, coupled with a novel dynamic, attention-based word cloud mechanism that provides intuitive risk visualization while filtering irrelevant terms. This lightweight design ensures scalable deployment across diverse computing environments with real-time processing capabilities for thousands of financial documents which is essential for production systems with constrained computational resources. We employ triplet loss for risk quartile classification, improving over pairwise loss approaches in existing literature by capturing both the direction and magnitude of risk differences. Our TinyXRA achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy across seven test years on a dataset spanning 2013-2024, while providing transparent and interpretable risk assessments. We conduct comprehensive ablation studies to evaluate our contributions and assess model explanations both quantitatively by systematically removing highly attended words and sentences, and qualitatively by examining explanation coherence. The paper concludes with findings, practical implications, limitations, and future research directions. Our code is available at https://github.com/Chen-XueWen/TinyXRA.
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