用逻辑语言统一验证贝叶斯网络的推理与假设,提升可解释性。
BayesL: a Logical Framework for the Verification of Bayesian Networks
- 提出贝叶斯逻辑语言 BayesL,支持概率推理与行为性质验证
- 能形式化检验因果、证据及反事实场景,无需手动改模型
- 适合需要高可信度的医疗、金融等决策系统开发者
现代可解释AI仍面临根本性挑战:尽管贝叶斯网络(BNs)具备透明的概率结构,但缺乏统一方法来形式化表达、查询和验证其推论。分析师常依赖临时查询、手动干预或非正式推理来探索因果关系和假设情景,难以系统验证模型行为、发现隐藏假设或保证可靠性。本文提出 BayesL(读作 Basil),一种用于指定、查询和验证贝叶斯网络行为的逻辑框架。BayesL 是一种结构化语言,支持概率推理查询(如边缘概率、条件概率、MAP)以及类似模型检验的性质查询。它可对因果与证据关系进行多角度推理,包括通过条件概率表更新实现反事实分析,无需修改模型本身。除图结构推理外,BayesL 还支持性质的形式化定义,并配备专用模型检验算法及初步开源实现。通过将推理与验证统一于单一形式语言中,建立白盒验证范式,使模型结构、假设与推理过程显式编码并系统检查。我们在两个诊断案例研究与一组基准 BN 模型上展示效果,证明 BayesL 能精确、可分析地揭示模型行为,推动基于贝叶斯网络系统的透明性、可信度与实际可解释性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern explainable AI still struggles with a fundamental gap: although Bayesian networks (BNs) provide transparent probabilistic structure, there is no unified way to formally express, query, and verify what these models imply. Analysts often rely on ad hoc queries, manual interventions, or informal reasoning to explore causal relations and hypothetical scenarios, making it difficult to systematically validate model behaviour, uncover hidden assumptions, and guarantee reliability. We introduce BayesL (pronounced Basil), a logical framework for specifying, querying, and verifying the behaviour of BNs. BayesL is a structured language that supports both probabilistic inference queries (e.g., marginal, conditional, MAP) and model-checking-style queries that specify formal properties of BN behaviour. It facilitates versatile reasoning over causal and evidential relationships, including counterfactual what-if scenarios via conditional probability tables updates, without requiring manual modifications to the model. In addition to graph structure reasoning and inference, BayesL enables the formal specification of properties, supported by dedicated model checking algorithms and a preliminary open-source implementation. By allowing inference and verification within a single formal language, BayesL establishes a white-box verification paradigm in which model structure, assumptions, and reasoning processes are explicitly encoded and systematically checked. We demonstrate this through two diagnostic case studies and a benchmark set of BN models, showing how BayesL clarifies BN behaviour in a precise and analyzable way, advancing the transparency, trustworthiness, and practical explainability of BN-based systems.
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