arXiv:2507.00036cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2025-07

融合物理模型与深度学习,提升极地冰山漂移预测精度。

IDRIFTNET: Physics-Driven Spatiotemporal Deep Learning for Iceberg Drift Forecasting

  • 结合物理方程与残差学习,建模冰山运动的非线性特性。
  • 在南极冰山A23A和B22A上,平均位移误差与最终位移误差均更低。
  • 适合极地导航、气候模拟等需高精度冰山轨迹预测的场景。

极地海洋中的漂浮冰山对地球气候系统具有关键作用,影响淡水通量与区域生态系统,同时给极地航行带来挑战。然而,准确预测冰山轨迹仍面临巨大困难,主要源于时空数据稀缺及冰山运动的复杂非线性特性,其运动受多重动态环境因素影响,导致轨迹识别高度复杂。这些限制制约了深度学习模型捕捉内在动力学的能力,难以提供可靠预测。为此,本文提出混合型IDRIFTNET模型,融合冰山漂移的解析物理公式与增强型残差学习模型。该模型学习解析解与真实观测之间的偏差,并结合旋转增强的谱神经网络,从数据中捕捉全局与局部模式以预测未来位置。在南极冰山A23A和B22A上的对比实验表明,IDRIFTNET在多个时间点上均实现更低的最终位移误差(FDE)与平均位移误差(ADE),验证了其在数据有限与动态环境条件下对复杂非线性漂移过程的建模能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Drifting icebergs in the polar oceans play a key role in the Earth's climate system, impacting freshwater fluxes into the ocean and regional ecosystems while also posing a challenge to polar navigation. However, accurately forecasting iceberg trajectories remains a formidable challenge, primarily due to the scarcity of spatiotemporal data and the complex, nonlinear nature of iceberg motion, which is also impacted by environmental variables. The iceberg motion is influenced by multiple dynamic environmental factors, creating a highly variable system that makes trajectory identification complex. These limitations hinder the ability of deep learning models to effectively capture the underlying dynamics and provide reliable predictive outcomes. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid IDRIFTNET model, a physics-driven deep learning model that combines an analytical formulation of iceberg drift physics, with an augmented residual learning model. The model learns the pattern of mismatch between the analytical solution and ground-truth observations, which is combined with a rotate-augmented spectral neural network that captures both global and local patterns from the data to forecast future iceberg drift positions. We compare IDRIFTNET model performance with state-of-the-art models on two Antarctic icebergs: A23A and B22A. Our findings demonstrate that IDRIFTNET outperforms other models by achieving a lower Final Displacement Error (FDE) and Average Displacement Error (ADE) across a variety of time points. These results highlight IDRIFTNET's effectiveness in capturing the complex, nonlinear drift of icebergs for forecasting iceberg trajectories under limited data and dynamic environmental conditions.

冰山预测物理驱动时空建模深度学习

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