融合拓扑与数据的图网络,提升交通速度预测精度与抗异常能力
A Joint Topology-Data Fusion Graph Network for Robust Traffic Speed Prediction with Data Anomalism
- 构建可学习的拓扑-数据融合图,捕捉多尺度时空特征
- 结合差分数学与注意力机制,自适应平滑异常数据,提升模型鲁棒性
- 在真实数据集上比现有方法准确率高6.3%,收敛速度接近两倍快
精准的交通预测对智能交通系统至关重要,但现有方法难以处理交通动态的复杂性与非线性,难以有效融合时空特征。此外,传统静态方法难以应对历史数据的非平稳性和异常情况,影响数据平滑效果。为此,本文提出图融合增强网络(GFEN),用于路网级交通速度预测。GFEN引入一种新型拓扑-时空图融合技术,通过可训练方法从数据分布和路网拓扑中精细提取并融合时空相关性,实现多尺度时空特征建模。同时,采用基于k阶差分的数学框架与注意力驱动的深度学习结构相结合的混合方法,自适应平滑历史观测值,动态缓解数据异常与非平稳性。大量实验表明,GFEN在预测准确率上优于现有先进方法约6.3%,收敛速度接近近期混合模型的两倍,验证了其卓越性能与显著提升交通预测系统效率的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate traffic prediction is essential for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), yet current methods struggle with the inherent complexity and non-linearity of traffic dynamics, making it difficult to integrate spatial and temporal characteristics. Furthermore, existing approaches use static techniques to address non-stationary and anomalous historical data, which limits adaptability and undermines data smoothing. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Graph Fusion Enhanced Network (GFEN), an innovative framework for network-level traffic speed prediction. GFEN introduces a novel topological spatiotemporal graph fusion technique that meticulously extracts and merges spatial and temporal correlations from both data distribution and network topology using trainable methods, enabling the modeling of multi-scale spatiotemporal features. Additionally, GFEN employs a hybrid methodology combining a k-th order difference-based mathematical framework with an attention-based deep learning structure to adaptively smooth historical observations and dynamically mitigate data anomalies and non-stationarity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GFEN surpasses state-of-the-art methods by approximately 6.3% in prediction accuracy and exhibits convergence rates nearly twice as fast as recent hybrid models, confirming its superior performance and potential to significantly enhance traffic prediction system efficiency.
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