arXiv:2507.00089cs.LGstat.ME2025-07被引 3

用安全检查数据预测短期事故高发期,帮管理者提前干预。

A new machine learning framework for occupational accidents forecasting with safety inspections integration

  • 将安全检查转为二值时间序列,按日预测、周汇总风险。
  • 所有算法均可靠识别高风险时段,周级预测表现稳定。
  • 适合安全管理决策者,用于优化资源分配与干预时机。

我们提出一种模型无关的短期职业事故预测框架,整合安全检查数据,将事故发生建模为二值时间序列。该方法生成每日预测,并聚合为周级安全评估,以支持更好决策。为确保预测可靠性与可操作性,采用专为时间序列设计的滑动窗口交叉验证,结合周期级指标评估。在该框架下,系统比较了逻辑回归、树模型和神经网络等多种机器学习算法。所有测试算法均能可靠识别未来高风险时段,展现稳健的周期级性能,证明将安全检查转化为二值时间序列可生成可行动的短期风险信号。该方法将日常检查数据转化为清晰的周/日风险评分,帮助决策者识别事故最可能发生的时间段,进而纳入规划工具中,分类检查优先级、安排针对性干预,并将资源聚焦于最高风险场所或班次,实现事前预防,最大化安全投入回报。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a model-agnostic framework for short-term occupational accident forecasting that leverages safety inspections and models accident occurrences as binary time series. The approach generates daily predictions, which are then aggregated into weekly safety assessments for better decision making. To ensure the reliability and operational applicability of the forecasts, we apply a sliding-window cross-validation procedure specifically designed for time series data, combined with an evaluation based on aggregated period-level metrics. Several machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, tree-based models, and neural networks, are trained and systematically compared within this framework. Across all tested algorithms, the proposed framework reliably identifies upcoming high-risk periods and delivers robust period-level performance, demonstrating that converting safety inspections into binary time series yields actionable, short-term risk signals. The proposed methodology converts routine safety inspection data into clear weekly and daily risk scores, detecting the periods when accidents are most likely to occur. Decision-makers can integrate these scores into their planning tools to classify inspection priorities, schedule targeted interventions, and funnel resources to the sites or shifts classified as highest risk, stepping in before incidents occur and getting the greatest return on safety investments.

事故预测安全评估机器学习

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