arXiv:2507.00353eess.SYcs.LG2025-07被引 1

用自适应集成稀疏学习提升电池模型精度,还给出可信的预测误差范围。

Augmented Physics-Based Li-ion Battery Model via Adaptive Ensemble Sparse Learning and Conformal Prediction

  • 结合扩展单粒子模型与进化稀疏学习,动态补偿电池非线性行为
  • 电压预测均方误差降低最高达46%,在未见数据上表现优异
  • 引入置信预测保障结果可靠性,适合对安全要求高的电池系统

精确的电化学模型对电动汽车和电网储能等实际应用中锂离子电池的安全高效运行至关重要。降阶模型(ROM)在保真度与计算效率间取得平衡,但难以捕捉复杂非线性行为,如高倍率下的电压响应动态。为此,本文提出自适应集成稀疏识别(AESI)框架,通过补偿不可预测动态,提升降阶电池模型精度。该方法将扩展单粒子模型(ESPM)与进化集成稀疏学习策略结合,构建稳健的混合模型。同时,AESI框架引入置信预测方法,为电压误差动态提供理论保证的不确定性量化,增强预测可靠性。在多种工况下的评估显示,混合模型(ESPM + AESI)显著提升电压预测精度,未见数据上的均方误差最高降低46%。置信预测进一步保障预测可靠性,基于袋装法和稳定性选择的集成模型分别实现96.85%和97.41%的覆盖率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate electrochemical models are essential for the safe and efficient operation of lithium-ion batteries in real-world applications such as electrified vehicles and grid storage. Reduced-order models (ROM) offer a balance between fidelity and computational efficiency but often struggle to capture complex and nonlinear behaviors, such as the dynamics in the cell voltage response under high C-rate conditions. To address these limitations, this study proposes an Adaptive Ensemble Sparse Identification (AESI) framework that enhances the accuracy of reduced-order li-ion battery models by compensating for unpredictable dynamics. The approach integrates an Extended Single Particle Model (ESPM) with an evolutionary ensemble sparse learning strategy to construct a robust hybrid model. In addition, the AESI framework incorporates a conformal prediction method to provide theoretically guaranteed uncertainty quantification for voltage error dynamics, thereby improving the reliability of the model's predictions. Evaluation across diverse operating conditions shows that the hybrid model (ESPM + AESI) improves the voltage prediction accuracy, achieving mean squared error reductions of up to 46% on unseen data. Prediction reliability is further supported by conformal prediction, yielding statistically valid prediction intervals with coverage ratios of 96.85% and 97.41% for the ensemble models based on bagging and stability selection, respectively.

电池建模稀疏学习置信预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。