用回波顶高提升降水短时预报,效果不稳但值得探索
Do Echo Top Heights Improve Deep Learning Nowcasts?
- 将回波顶高作为辅助输入,与雷达反射率一起输入3D U-Net
- 在低强度降水时提升预报准确率,但高强度下反而低估雨强
- 案例显示回波顶高有时助益,有时误导模型,增加误差
降水短时预报——利用近期雷达观测预测降雨——对交通、农业和防灾等关键领域至关重要。尽管深度学习模型在提升预报能力方面展现潜力,但多数方法仅依赖二维雷达反射率场,忽略了三维雷达数据中的宝贵垂直信息。本文探讨了回波顶高(Echo Top Height, ETH)这一二维投影变量作为深度学习预报的辅助输入,其表示某阈值以上雷达反射率的最大高度。研究验证了ETH与雷达反射率的相关性及其对降雨强度预测的价值。我们采用单通道3D U-Net模型,将雷达反射率和ETH分别作为独立输入通道进行处理。结果表明,模型在低雨强阈值下能有效利用ETH提升性能,但在高雨强条件下表现不一致,且普遍低估降水强度。通过三个典型案例分析,发现ETH在某些情况下有助于识别对流结构,但也可能引入误判,导致误差方差增大。本研究为评估额外变量对预报性能的影响提供了基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Precipitation nowcasting -- the short-term prediction of rainfall using recent radar observations -- is critical for weather-sensitive sectors such as transportation, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. While recent deep learning models have shown promise in improving nowcasting skill, most approaches rely solely on 2D radar reflectivity fields, discarding valuable vertical information available in the full 3D radar volume. In this work, we explore the use of Echo Top Height (ETH), a 2D projection indicating the maximum altitude of radar reflectivity above a given threshold, as an auxiliary input variable for deep learning-based nowcasting. We examine the relationship between ETH and radar reflectivity, confirming its relevance for predicting rainfall intensity. We implement a single-pass 3D U-Net that processes both the radar reflectivity and ETH as separate input channels. While our models are able to leverage ETH to improve skill at low rain-rate thresholds, results are inconsistent at higher intensities and the models with ETH systematically underestimate precipitation intensity. Three case studies are used to illustrate how ETH can help in some cases, but also confuse the models and increase the error variance. Nonetheless, the study serves as a foundation for critically assessing the potential contribution of additional variables to nowcasting performance.
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