arXiv:2507.00945cs.LGcs.CY2025-07

用地理社会信号增强时间序列模型,提升短时人流预测精度

TS-Mob: Social and Geographical-Aware Time Series Foundation-Model Framework for Human Mobility Prediction

  • 基于引力模型构建目的地吸引力指数,融合人口、距离、兴趣点等多源数据
  • 在纽约骑行、北京出租车、西班牙全国客流三组数据上,MAE降低最高78.71%
  • 适合城市规划、交通调度等需高精度人流预测的场景

短期聚合人流预测对城市规划、智能交通和应急响应至关重要,但现有模型通常依赖大量历史数据,并隐式通过网格或图结构学习空间关系。时间序列基础模型虽具备强时序先验,却缺乏对起终点交互的显式地理与社会条件。本文提出TS-Mob框架,将微调的时间序列基础模型(TimesFM)结合引力启发的目的地吸引力指数,该指数由公开数据(常住人口、中心距、Overture POI数量)及天气协变量计算得出。在Bike New York City、Taxi Beijing和基于手机数据估计的全国尺度西班牙OD矩阵上评估,TS-Mob在RMSE、MAE和CPC指标上均优于经典模型、深度时空模型及部分基础模型基准,相较最优经典基线,MAE最低降低78.71%,CPC最高提升137.93%;相较最强基础模型,RMSE最低降低4.27%。分层分析显示其在工作日/周末等不同时间模式下均具鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Short-term forecasting of aggregated human mobility flows supports urban planning, intelligent transportation systems, and emergency response, yet existing models often require substantial mobility history and learn spatial structure implicitly through grids or graphs. Time series foundation models provide strong temporal priors but typically lack explicit geographic and social conditioning for origin-destination interactions. We introduce TS-Mob, a framework that conditions a fine-tuned time series foundation model (TimesFM) forecaster on a gravity-inspired destination-attractiveness index that encodes geographic and social signals computed from open data (living population, centroid distances, and Overture POI counts), together with weather covariates. Evaluated on commonly used benchmarks like Bike New York City, Taxi Beijing, and a nation-scale Spain origin-destination matrix estimated through mobile phone data, TS-Mob outperforms classical, deep spatio-temporal, and a set of foundation model-based baselines across RMSE, MAE, and CPC, with gains up to 78.71% lower MAE and 137.93% higher CPC over the best classical baseline, and up to about 4.27% lower RMSE over the strongest foundation baseline. Stratified analyses further show robustness across different temporal regimes, like weekdays/weekends.

人流预测时间序列城市规划引力模型

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