arXiv:2507.01918q-fin.PMcs.AI2025-07被引 7

用神经网络优化大股票组合,降低波动率并提升收益风险比。

End-to-End Large Portfolio Optimization for Variance Minimization with Neural Networks through Covariance Cleaning

  • 构建旋转不变神经网络,联合学习收益滞后与波动率,清洗大协方差矩阵特征值。
  • 在2000至2024年测试中,实现更低波动、更小回撤、更高夏普比率。
  • 模型可跨规模应用,适合实盘交易框架,抗市场极端波动能力强。

我们提出一种旋转不变神经网络,通过联合学习历史收益的滞后变换与边际波动率,并对大型股票协方差矩阵的特征值进行正则化,以获得全局最小方差投资组合。该模型具有明确的数学映射结构,模块角色可解释,非纯黑箱。其架构模仿最小方差解的解析形式,但不依赖维度,单模型可在数百只股票上校准,无需重训练即可应用于上千只美国股票,体现强泛化能力。损失函数为未来短期实际最小方差,基于真实收益端到端优化。2000年1月至2024年12月的样本外测试显示,该估计器持续优于最佳竞争方法(包括先进的非线性收缩),在短长期评估周期均表现更优,且虽仅针对短期训练,优势仍持续存在。尽管模型训练目标为无约束最小方差组合,但其学习的协方差表示可用于带长期限约束的通用优化器,性能损失可忽略。在模拟真实执行环境(含拍卖订单、滑点、交易所费用及杠杆融资成本)下,优势依然稳定,且在剧烈市场压力期保持稳健。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We develop a rotation-invariant neural network that provides the global minimum-variance portfolio by jointly learning how to lag-transform historical returns and marginal volatilities and how to regularise the eigenvalues of large equity covariance matrices. This explicit mathematical mapping offers clear interpretability of each module's role, so the model cannot be regarded as a pure black box. The architecture mirrors the analytical form of the global minimum-variance solution yet remains agnostic to dimension, so a single model can be calibrated on panels of a few hundred stocks and applied, without retraining, to one thousand US equities, a cross-sectional jump that indicates robust generalization capability. The loss function is the future short-term realized minimum variance and is optimized end-to-end on real returns. In out-of-sample tests from January 2000 to December 2024, the estimator delivers systematically lower realized volatility, smaller maximum drawdowns, and higher Sharpe ratios than the best competitors, including state-of-the-art non-linear shrinkage, and these advantages persist across both short and long evaluation horizons despite the model's training focus is short-term. Furthermore, although the model is trained end-to-end to produce an unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio, we show that its learned covariance representation can be used in general optimizers under long-only constraints with virtually no loss in its performance advantage over competing estimators. These advantages persist when the strategy is executed under a highly realistic implementation framework that models market orders at the auctions, empirical slippage, exchange fees, and financing charges for leverage, and they remain stable during episodes of acute market stress.

组合优化神经网络协方差清洗量化投资

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。