用图神经网络分析工业碳排放,精准识别高排放热点区
Deep Graph Learning for Industrial Carbon Emission Analysis and Policy Impact
- 构建图-时序融合模型,捕捉行业间与时间上的复杂关联
- 预测误差比基线模型降低15%以上,且可解释性更强
- 适合政策制定者和产业界用于制定精准减排策略
工业碳排放是气候变化的主要驱动因素,但因因子间多重共线性和跨行业、跨时间的复杂依赖关系,建模极具挑战。本文提出一种基于图神经网络与注意力机制的深度学习框架DGL,通过结构化编码特征关系解决多重共线性问题,并结合时序变压器捕捉长期依赖模式。在源自EDGAR v8.0的全球工业排放数据集上验证,该模型相比基线深度模型预测误差降低超15%,并通过注意力权重与因果分析保持可解释性。首次实现图-时序架构下的因果推断,识别真实排放驱动因素,提升透明度与公平性。模型揭示高排放“热点区域”,并提出符合可持续发展目标的差异化干预方案,展示前沿图学习技术助力气候行动的潜力,为政策制定者与产业主体提供有力决策工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Industrial carbon emissions are a major driver of climate change, yet modeling these emissions is challenging due to multicollinearity among factors and complex interdependencies across sectors and time. We propose a novel graph-based deep learning framework DGL to analyze and forecast industrial CO_2 emissions, addressing high feature correlation and capturing industrial-temporal interdependencies. Unlike traditional regression or clustering methods, our approach leverages a Graph Neural Network (GNN) with attention mechanisms to model relationships between industries (or regions) and a temporal transformer to learn long-range patterns. We evaluate our framework on public global industry emissions dataset derived from EDGAR v8.0, spanning multiple countries and sectors. The proposed model achieves superior predictive performance - reducing error by over 15% compared to baseline deep models - while maintaining interpretability via attention weights and causal analysis. We believe that we are the first Graph-Temporal architecture that resolves multicollinearity by structurally encoding feature relationships, along with integration of causal inference to identify true drivers of emissions, improving transparency and fairness. We also stand a demonstration of policy relevance, showing how model insights can guide sector-specific decarbonization strategies aligned with sustainable development goals. Based on the above, we show high-emission "hotspots" and suggest equitable intervention plans, illustrating the potential of state-of-the-art AI graph learning to advance climate action, offering a powerful tool for policymakers and industry stakeholders to achieve carbon reduction targets.
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