arXiv:2507.03002eess.SYcs.AI2025-07被引 2

用博弈论建模司机左转决策,考虑人类有限理性,更贴近真实驾驶行为。

Game-Theoretic Modeling of Vehicle Unprotected Left Turns Considering Drivers' Bounded Rationality

  • 基于量化响应均衡的双人博弈模型,融合司机有限理性
  • 通过轨迹数据优化参数,准确捕捉交互中的决策倾向
  • 适合自动驾驶系统设计,提升复杂路口安全与效率

车辆决策建模在无保护左转场景中面临独特挑战,尤其因人类驾驶员的不确定性显著。在此背景下,联网自动驾驶汽车(CAV)技术为有效管理此类交互提供了新路径,兼顾安全性与效率。传统方法多基于完全理性的博弈论假设,难以反映真实场景中驾驶员的决策误差。为此,本文提出一种新型无保护左转决策模型,结合博弈论与司机有限理性,采用两玩家标准形式博弈,以量化响应均衡(QRE)求解,相比纳什均衡(NE)模型更具描述力。利用期望最大化(EM)算法与微粒级轨迹数据训练的神经网络联合优化模型参数,精准刻画司机的交互感知有限理性及驾驶风格。大量仿真实验表明,该模型能有效捕捉参与者间的交互感知有限理性与决策倾向。结果证明,相较NE模型,本模型在无保护左转场景下更具现实性与高效性。研究为有限理性下的车辆行为建模提供洞见,助力开发更鲁棒、真实的自动驾驶系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modeling the decision-making behavior of vehicles presents unique challenges, particularly during unprotected left turns at intersections, where the uncertainty of human drivers is especially pronounced. In this context, connected autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology emerges as a promising avenue for effectively managing such interactions while ensuring safety and efficiency. Traditional approaches, often grounded in game theory assumptions of perfect rationality, may inadequately capture the complexities of real-world scenarios and drivers' decision-making errors. To fill this gap, we propose a novel decision-making model for vehicle unprotected left-turn scenarios, integrating game theory with considerations for drivers' bounded rationality. Our model, formulated as a two-player normal-form game solved by a quantal response equilibrium (QRE), offers a more nuanced depiction of driver decision-making processes compared to Nash equilibrium (NE) models. Leveraging an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm coupled with a subtle neural network trained on precise microscopic vehicle trajectory data, we optimize model parameters to accurately reflect drivers' interaction-aware bounded rationality and driving styles. Through comprehensive simulation experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed model in capturing the interaction-aware bounded rationality and decision tendencies between players. The proposed model proves to be more realistic and efficient than NE models in unprotected left-turn scenarios. Our findings contribute valuable insights into the vehicle decision-making behaviors with bounded rationality, thereby informing the development of more robust and realistic autonomous driving systems.

自动驾驶博弈论有限理性交通建模

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