用可解释模型识别卫星云图中的对流顶端,让算法像专家一样思考。
Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning: Illustrating the use of Explainable Boosting Machines to Identify Overshooting Tops in Satellite Imagery
- 用可解释的提升机模型结合气象知识提取云纹理特征
- 模型准确率虽不及复杂方法,但能清晰展示决策逻辑
- 适合需要透明决策的气象预警场景,尤其适合人机协作
机器学习在气象领域应用广泛,但其泛化能力受限,易因黑箱特性导致灾难性失败。为应对这一问题,本文展示了一种新型可解释机器学习算法——可解释提升机(Explainable Boosting Machines, EBMs)在气象学中的应用潜力。以识别卫星图像中的对流顶端(Overshooting Tops, OTs)为例,通过知识引导的机器学习方法,从气象影像中提取标量特征,如利用灰度共生矩阵提取云纹理信息。训练完成后,基于领域科学家的判断策略对EBM进行微调,使其决策过程更贴近人类认知。最终构建出一个完全可解释、基于人机协作的模型。尽管其精度未达复杂模型水平,但表现合理,为未来开发高可解释性气象预测模型提供了可行路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged in many meteorological applications. However, these algorithms struggle to extrapolate beyond the data they were trained on, i.e., they may adopt faulty strategies that lead to catastrophic failures. These failures are difficult to predict due to the opaque nature of ML algorithms. In high-stakes applications, such as severe weather forecasting, is is crucial to avoid such failures. One approach to address this issue is to develop more interpretable ML algorithms. The primary goal of this work is to illustrate the use of a specific interpretable ML algorithm that has not yet found much use in meteorology, Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs). We demonstrate that EBMs are particularly suitable to implement human-guided strategies in an ML algorithm. As guiding example, we show how to develop an EBM to detect overshooting tops (OTs) in satellite imagery. EBMs require input features to be scalar. We use techniques from Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning to first extract scalar features from meteorological imagery. For the application of identifying OTs this includes extracting cloud texture from satellite imagery using Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrices. Once trained, the EBM was examined and minimally altered to more closely match strategies used by domain scientists to identify OTs. The result of our efforts is a fully interpretable ML algorithm developed in a human-machine collaboration that uses human-guided strategies. While the final model does not reach the accuracy of more complex approaches, it performs reasonably well and we hope paves the way for building more interpretable ML algorithms for this and other meteorological applications.
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