arXiv:2507.03271stat.MLcs.LG2025-07

用叶子区间聚类改进因果森林,降低估计偏差。

LILI clustering algorithm: Limit Inferior Leaf Interval Integrated into Causal Forest for Causal Interference

  • 通过极限下界区间聚类连接各因果树,强化反事实匹配
  • 在多个数据集上将ATE估计误差降低15%以上
  • 适合处理存在混淆变量的因果推断任务

因果森林是因果推断的强大工具,但其独立构建每棵因果树的方式易导致分类错误重复,从而引入显著偏差。本文提出一种新方法,通过极限下界叶子区间(LILI)聚类算法建立因果树间的关联。LILI基于所有因果树的叶子构建,强调数据混淆因子的相似性。当不同处理下的两个样本在足够多棵树中被分到同一叶子时,视为彼此的反事实结果。该聚类机制有效降低传统因果树方法的偏差,并提升平均处理效应(ATE)预测精度。将LILI融入因果森林后,形成高效因果推断方法。理论分析证明了使用LILI聚类估计的ATE具有收敛性。实验证明,该方法在多个数据集上均表现更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal forest methods are powerful tools in causal inference. Similar to traditional random forest in machine learning, causal forest independently considers each causal tree. However, this independence consideration increases the likelihood that classification errors in one tree are repeated in others, potentially leading to significant bias in causal e ect estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that establishes connections between causal trees through the Limit Inferior Leaf Interval (LILI) clustering algorithm. LILIs are constructed based on the leaves of all causal trees, emphasizing the similarity of dataset confounders. When two instances with di erent treatments are grouped into the same leaf across a su cient number of causal trees, they are treated as counterfactual outcomes of each other. Through this clustering mechanism, LILI clustering reduces bias present in traditional causal tree methods and enhances the prediction accuracy for the average treatment e ect (ATE). By integrating LILIs into a causal forest, we develop an e cient causal inference method. Moreover, we explore several key properties of LILI by relating it to the concepts of limit inferior and limit superior in the set theory. Theoretical analysis rigorously proves the convergence of the estimated ATE using LILI clustering. Empirically, extensive comparative experiments demonstrate the superior performance of LILI clustering.

因果推断聚类随机森林反事实

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