arXiv:2507.03411cs.LGcs.GT2025-07被引 2

融合博弈论与深度学习,用社交媒体意见领袖预测旅游客流变化。

A Hybrid Game-Theory and Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Tourist Arrivals via Big Data Analytics and Opinion Leader Detection

  • 用博弈论算法识别社交平台意见领袖,挖掘舆论影响因子。
  • 通过经验小波变换处理非平稳数据,提升时间-频率分析精度。
  • 在港、琼两地疫情前后数据上表现优异,适合动态决策场景。

在工业5.0时代,数据驱动决策对优化工业工程系统至关重要。本文提出一种新型非线性混合方法,用于预测两类情境下的国际游客数量:(i)疫情前香港来自五个主要来源国的游客;(ii)疫情后海南三亚的游客。该方法整合多种互联网大数据,采用创新的博弈论算法识别社交媒体上的意见领袖,进而利用经验小波变换(EWT)处理旅游需求数据中的非平稳特性,实现精细化的时间-频率分析。最后,通过具有记忆能力的堆叠双向长短期记忆网络(Stacked BiLSTM)生成高精度需求预测。实验表明,该方法优于现有最先进技术,在动态和波动环境下仍具鲁棒性,展现出在物流、供应链管理和生产规划等工业工程领域的广泛适用性。通过融合深度学习、时频分析与社交媒体洞察,该框架彰显了大规模数据如何提升决策质量与效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the era of Industry 5.0, data-driven decision-making has become indispensable for optimizing systems across Industrial Engineering. This paper addresses the value of big data analytics by proposing a novel non-linear hybrid approach for forecasting international tourist arrivals in two different contexts: (i) arrivals to Hong Kong from five major source nations (pre-COVID-19), and (ii) arrivals to Sanya in Hainan province, China (post-COVID-19). The method integrates multiple sources of Internet big data and employs an innovative game theory-based algorithm to identify opinion leaders on social media platforms. Subsequently, nonstationary attributes in tourism demand data are managed through Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT), ensuring refined time-frequency analysis. Finally, a memory-aware Stacked Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Stacked BiLSTM) network is used to generate accurate demand forecasts. Experimental results demonstrate that this approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art techniques and remains robust under dynamic and volatile conditions, highlighting its applicability to broader Industrial Engineering domains, such as logistics, supply chain management, and production planning, where forecasting and resource allocation are key challenges. By merging advanced Deep Learning (DL), time-frequency analysis, and social media insights, the proposed framework showcases how large-scale data can elevate the quality and efficiency of decision-making processes.

旅游预测深度学习社会媒体时频分析

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