arXiv:2507.04441stat.MLcs.AI2025-07被引 6

用范畴论解析置信预测,揭示其不确定性表达的数学结构。

A Category-Theoretic Analysis of Conformal Prediction

  • 用范畴论构建置信预测的数学框架,明确其稳定性和可测性。
  • 证明置信区域可分解为两步:提取预测分布再生成区域,支持更丰富的不确定性量化。
  • 连接贝叶斯、频率派与模糊概率预测,适用于关注可靠性与隐私的场景。

置信预测(CP)在有限样本下提供无分布覆盖保证,但其作为定量不确定性工具的解释常被忽略。本文发展了一种范畴论方法,显式揭示其结构。我们证明,全置信预测可表示为两个范畴中的态射,分别捕捉(i)集合型方法的稳定性与(ii)随机区域的可测性。在弱条件下,我们建立交换图结果,将置信区域构造分解为两步:从数据中提取预测分布集合,再从中导出预测区域。该分解为区域大小之外的数值不确定性摘要提供了理论依据。此外,我们证明渐近相容性:在规则情形下,贝叶斯预测得分对应的置信区域收敛于贝叶斯预测密度等高集;并在局部经验过程与边界正则性假设下给出量化收敛速率。这揭示了贝叶斯、频率派与模糊概率预测之间的桥梁。我们还识别出上后验构造与e-后验关联的条件,阐明e值法与置信模糊表示可能一致的情形。最后,我们证明区域提取器是函子性的,从而获得一种模块化且兼容隐私的视角:共享摘要对象的隐私保护外逼近,可导致保守的全局预测区域。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that makes this structure explicit. We show that Full Conformal Prediction can be represented as a morphism in two categories capturing (i) stability of set-valued procedures and (ii) measurability of random regions. Under mild conditions, we prove a commuting diagram result that decomposes the construction of a conformal region into two steps: Extracting a set of predictive distributions from the data, and then deriving a prediction region from this set. This decomposition provides a principled route to numerical uncertainty summaries beyond region size. We further prove an asymptotic compatibility result showing that, for Bayesian predictive scores in regular regimes, conformal regions converge to Bayesian predictive density level sets; We also provide quantitative rates under local empirical process and boundary regularity assumptions. This highlights a bridge between Bayesian, frequentist, and imprecise probabilistic prediction. We additionally identify conditions under which upper posterior constructions are related to e-posteriors, clarifying when e-value-based and conformal-imprecise representations can coincide. Finally, we show that the region extractor is functorial; This yields a modular privacy-compatible perspective in which privacy-preserving outer approximations of shared summary objects lead to conservative global prediction regions.

置信预测范畴论不确定性量化贝叶斯推理

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